AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs Chiefs
Patriots run defense vs Chiefs running game
The Chiefs run a zone blocking scheme and like to stretch defenses horizontally with misdirection and jet motion. They like to use their speed to get to the edge before the defense. Bill Belichick preaches edge setting, and the Patriots, especially the LBs, will need to have perfect communication, eye discipline, and make sure to stay on their keys when reading the play. The Patriots have been susceptible to plays that stretch the defense horizontally, due to their lack of speed at the LB position, so they will have their hands full with this fast Kansas City offense.
Unlike in the week 6 matchup, the Chiefs will be without Kareem Hunt, who was released by the team. Hunt has ripped off numerous big plays and has had excellent games against New England in each of his two starts against them. Starting for the Chiefs at RB this week will be Damian Williams. Williams has looked very good for the Chiefs since becoming their #1 RB, but he is no Hunt. He lacks that explosiveness and ability to make a big game changing play.
The Patriots will likely be in dime for the majority of the game, so there should be ample opportunity for the Chiefs to gain a lot of yards on the ground.
Match-up edge: Chiefs.
Patriots pass rush vs Chiefs pass protection
The Chiefs have been solid in pass protection this season. RT Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who suffered an injury in week 2, is likely to play on Sunday, but given that he has not played in so long, it remains to be seen whether or not he will be in game shape.
The Patriots pass rush is 3rd in pressure rate in 2018, and the Patriots are top 10 in pressure without blitzing. In week 6, they pressured Mahomes on 35% of his snaps, resulting in several key incompletions or short passes. They played Cover 0 on several snaps, but they also used the amoeba front to confuse Mahomes, which seemed to work. At times they would show blitz, but have their LBs drop back in coverage. This resulted in an interception by Hightower early in the game.
The Patriots will need to use a lot of disguises just as in week 6, but they will need to do it in different ways - ways that Mahomes has yet to see. Being on the road, it will be a tough task to get consistent pressure on Mahomes, but they should be able to harass him in certain situations.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots pass defense vs Chiefs passing game
Ever since the 2014 meeting between the two squads in week 4, the Chiefs have provided a blueprint on how to successfully attack the New England defense. Very few teams have the personnel to implement this blueprint, and even those that did, have not always been successful. The Chiefs have the speed and talent to cause major issues for the Patriots. Teams like the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, the Jaguars in week 2 of this season, and even the Lions in week 3, have all followed the Chiefs' blueprint with success. Since 2014, the Chiefs are 2-2 against New England, and have scored 41, 42, and 40 points in 3 of those games.
As noted previously, the Chiefs like to stretch opposing defenses horizontally with misdirection plays and jet motion. Once they get you to honor these plays early in the game, they will attack you vertically with extremely fast WRs like Hill and Watkins. All of those misdirection and jet motion plays are designed to open up the middle of the field, as the defense is forced to go horizontally.
In week 6, Kareem Hunt had several big plays in the passing game. He will not be available for the Chiefs on Sunday. The Patriots will also have JC Jackson at CB this week. He did not play at all in week 6.
In that game, the Patriots held the Chiefs to 0 TDs and only 9 points in the 1st half. They did this by playing a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3, and some Cover 0 with amoeba fronts. To limit their shallow crossers, they clogged up the middle of the field. Then they went to more of a Cover 2 defense in the 2nd half, and Mahomes started to pick them apart with big passes to Hill and Hunt.
New England's best bet is to mix Cover 1 and Cover 3 as they did in week 6. Gilmore held Watkins to just 18 yards in the previous meeting, so he should be assigned to him again. JC Jackson has the lowest passer rating of any CB in the NFL since becoming a starter, and he has shut down WRs the caliber of Adam Thielen and JuJu Smith-Schuster. He has the ability and speed, and if he is assigned to Hill with safety over the top, this may be their best bet to try to slow him down. Jason McCourty, who has played very well this season, will likely man up against Demarcus Robinson. Patrick Chung has historically performed well against Travis Kelce, and has shut him down each time he has covered him. He should draw that assignment once again.
The Patriots are one of the most physical teams in the league, and they will need to use that physicality to jam these wide receivers at the line of scrimmage in order to disrupt their routes, and allow the pass rush to get to Mahomes.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Chiefs run defense
Kansas City's run defense has been porous all season long. They rank 27th in average rushing yards per game, and 31st in yards per carry. Last week against the Colts they allowed over 6 yards per carry. This is a very aggressive front who lacks gap discipline.
The Patriots boast the hottest rushing attack in the league. They run both zone blocking concepts and gap schemes, but they are primarily a gap scheme attack. They love to pound you with their power running game. The offensive line has been stellar in run blocking, and Allen and Gronk have contributed significantly in this department. They should have a lot of success on the ground against this defensive front.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Chiefs pass rush
The Kansas City Chiefs lead the league in sacks. They have several dangerous pass rushers, including, Dee Ford, Chris Jones, and Justin Houston, who did not play in week 6. They can get pressure from anywhere, and they are a very potent group at home.
The Patriots' offensive line has been one of the best in the league all season in both pass protection and run blocking. They have faced some elite pass rushing units, including last week against the Chargers, and they have been able to shut them down. The challenge this week will be to duplicate that performance on the road, in a very hostile environment.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Chiefs pass defense
Unlike the Chargers, the Chiefs deploy a lot more man coverage. They mix their coverages, but they've played man coverage on about 47% of their snaps this season. Their top 3 cornerbacks are Kendall Fuller, Steve Nelson, and Charvarius Ward. Eric Berry, who did not play in week 6, is likely to play this week.
In week 6, Kendall Fuller, who is Kansas City's best cornerback, had a rough game. He allowed several big plays to Hogan and Edelman from the slot. He has struggled in man coverage all season, and given that the Chiefs will likely look to play a lot of man-to-man, this could be a match-up that Tom Brady may look to exploit.
The Chiefs have also been one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending TEs. It's difficult to gauge how much of an impact Eric Berry will have, since he has barely played this season, and we don't know how healthy he is or if he is in game shape.
The Chiefs are also susceptible to running backs in the passing game. James White tied the playoff record for receptions last week and had 95 receiving yards. Rex Burkhead is also a threat out of the backfield, and although he has not been used much in that capacity, Sony Michel has the ability as well.
Tom Brady will be going up against a very young and inexperienced secondary. He has seen it all in his career, and he has a knack for manipulating inexperienced defensive backs, as well as identifying and exploiting any mismatches. He should have another vintage playoff performance on Sunday.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
