Divisional Round: Chargers vs Patriots

Patriots run defense vs Chargers running game

The Chargers, much like the Patriots, run the Erhardt-Perkins system. Like the Patriots, this system allows for flexibility based on opponent. They can run a more smash mouth offense if need be, or they can go with more of a zone blocking approach. They've been strong on the ground for most of the season and are tied for 7th in yards per carry. Their leading rusher is Melvin Gordon, who also had a big game in last season's game vs New England. He has been banged up for several weeks, however, and has missed practice this week. He should be able to play, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be. The Chargers have also received significant contribution from Austin Ekeler in the running game, and Justin Jackson is a capable back as well.

The Patriots' run defense remains the biggest weakness of the team. The Patriots are in nickel and dime alignment a large portion of the time, and so this places the onus on the defensive tackles to stop the run. With the exception of Lawrence Guy, this has not been a position of strength for the team. Danny Shelton's presence improves matters ever so slightly, but it still has not been enough to prevent him from being a healthy scratch in several games this season. The Patriots will have their hands full this week with a strong running attack.

Match-up edge: Chargers.

Patriots pass rush vs Chargers pass protection

The Chargers' offensive line has been one of the weakest in pass protection in 2018. Last week against the Ravens, the Chargers' OL had a great deal of trouble with pressure. Baltimore mixed things up by bringing pressure from both man and zone defenses and bringing the heat from different areas. They also executed some nice DL stunts that seemed to confuse the Chargers' line. The biggest weakness seemed top be up the middle.

The Patriots had the 3rd highest pressure rate throughout the regular season, and they were top 10 in bringing pressure without blitzing. Like the Ravens, the Patriots are also very creative in the way they bring and disguise pressure. They have also been consistently good in their execution of DL stunts. They have the tools to exploit the weaknesses in the Chargers' pass protection, and this will be key in slowing down their passing attack. Look for them to target the RBs when they bring an extra pass rusher at Rivers, as they have struggled in picking up the blitz.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots pass defense vs Chargers passing game

As an Erhardt-Perkins offense, the Chargers favor a quick passing attack. They like to spread teams out and use pre-snap reads to search for potential mismatches. Philip Rivers also loves to use his RBs in the passing game. In fact, over 1000 of his passing yards have come from the RBs.

The Chargers love the mesh concept. This is something that has caused New England some issues in the past. They've been burned on shallow crossing routes that have taken advantage of the lack of speed of their LBs. The Chargers run so many crossers that sometimes they will run a pivot route and have the receiver sell the crosser, but then whip back outside. This is something the Patriots will have to watch out for, and it should be countered with physicality and press coverage at the line, in order to disrupt the offense's timing and allow the pass rush to get to Rivers.

The Patriots are predominately a Cover 1/Cover 3 defense, but they run more man coverage than most teams in the league. Their secondary is elite and very physical. Stephon Gilmore was named 1st Team All-Pro, JC Jackson has the lowest passer rating allowed of any CB in the league since becoming a starter, and Jason McCourty has played very well this season. Their safeties - Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon - have all looked good in their roles. This unit has shut down the league's best receivers - including Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Travis Kelce. However, the question mark still remains at linebacker. Kyle Van Noy has had a solid season, but the LB corps can still be exploited in coverage. There's no doubt that the Chargers will try to isolate them in coverage against their RBs. This is likely where most of LA's passing yards will come from. So long as the defense keeps everything in front of them and limits Keenan Allen and the two Williams receivers, the pass rush should be able to do its work and hold the Chargers to field goals in the red zone.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots running game vs Chargers run defense

The Chargers boast a star studded defensive line, featuring Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram at defensive end, Darius Philon at defensive tackle, and Brandon Mebane at nose tackle. However, they've been devastated by injury at linebacker. They've had one of the better run defenses in the league in 2018, but partly due to the injury at linebacker, and partly due to strategy, they went with an unconventional gameplan against a very good running attack last week in Baltimore. The Chargers used 7 defensive backs on a large portion of their defensive snaps. They had 3 of those DBs playing near the line of scrimmage on almost every snap. The Ravens' running game was largely predicated on QB Lamar Jackson's ability to use his speed and athleticism to run past defenses, and having faster defenders out on the field was a smart move.

The Patriots are 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, despite missing Sony Michel for several games, and Rex Burkhead for most of the season. They've put in good performances against some of the league's best run defenses, and they've dedicated a large portion of the final two weeks of the season to utilizing big personnel packages and pounding the ball with great success.

Unlike the Ravens, the Patriots are a more traditional power running team. If the Chargers decide to use 7 DBs at any point in time, the Patriots will counter with two tight ends (Gronk and Allen are two of the best blocking TEs in the league) and with FB James Develin. With this alignment, they should be able to have a lot of success against LA if they go lighter on defense.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots pass protection vs Chargers pass rush

The Chargers' defensive line is a very capable pass rushing unit, although most of their production comes from their ends - Bosa and Ingram. These two have been very adept at winning one on one battles, and they can rush the passer from anywhere - be it from the inside or outside.

The Patriots' offensive line has been among the top units in the league when it comes to pass protection. In particular, the guards and center that make up the interior of the line, have been exceptional. Tight ends Allen and Gronkowski have been good pass blockers as well, and the RBs have done a fine job in picking up the blitz. They will need another strong performance against Bosa and Ingram on Sunday.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots passing game vs Chargers pass defense

Gus Bradley, defensive coordinator for the Chargers, employs the same Cover 3/Cover 1 scheme he used in Seattle. They have many talented players on defense who fit this scheme well, and they have one of the best defensive units in the NFL.

The weaknesses of their defense are typical weaknesses of the Cover 3 scheme, and one that is not so typical.

The Chargers have been the worst team in the league when it comes to defending passes to RBs. In the last decade, only one team has given up more passing yards to RBs. They can also be exploited with mesh concepts, as their current LB corps is very weak in coverage. Lastly, the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the deep middle of the field. This is a bit unusual, since their scheme is built to take that part of the field away, but the play of their FS Addae has been subpar.

The Patriots' passing game has been up and down in the latter half of the season. They've lost Josh Gordon due to personal issues, they don't have a traditional deep threat WR, and Rob Gronkowski has been plagued by injury all season. Fortunately, they are built in such a way that makes them capable of taking advantage of the weaknesses of the Chargers' defense.

The Patriots have been exceptional at utilizing their RBs in the passing game, and against a defense that struggles in this area, White and Burkhead should have a big day. New England's offense also tends to make a living inside of the numbers, a particular area of weakness for the Chargers. Gronkowski and Edelman could be lethal down the seams. Furthermore, they utilize a lot of short passing concepts such as shallow crossers meant to take advantage of LBs in space.

Overall, New England's passing game vs the pass defense of the LA Chargers should be a fairly even matchup. Don't expect the Patriots' receivers to run amok on what is a very talented secondary. However, there are still areas that can be exploited for first downs, and ultimately, points.

Match-up edge: Even.