Super Bowl LIII: Patriots vs Rams
Patriots run defense vs Rams running game
The Rams are primarily an outside zone blocking team. This means that they rely on the horizontal displacement of the defense. They use a lot of pre-snap motion and misdirection to displace defenders.
The Rams' offensive line has done a fantastic job in run blocking all season, and they've consistently opened large running lanes for Todd Gurley and the newly acquired CJ Anderson. They have been the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL this season, and one of the best in recent history.
New England's run defense was porous for most of the season, but they have been tremendous in the postseason, allowing fewer than 60 yards in the two games combined, against two formidable rushing attacks.
The good news for New England is that the teams who have defended the run best against the Rams, have done so using a formula that the Patriots have employed in the past. They lined up their interior defensive linemen along the A and B gaps and the edge defenders standing and ready to seal the edge to prevent runs to the outside. The defensive tackles will need to penetrate the backfield quickly to disrupt the play, and to allow the ends to defend the run to the outside.
This will be a difficult task for New England, given the high level play of the Rams' OL, and all of the misdirection and motion the Rams use, but if they remain disciplined, ignore all of the smoke and mirrors, and play their gap assignments correctly, they will have a chance to make key stops and prevent any big plays on the ground.
Match-up edge: Rams.
Patriots pass rush vs Rams pass protection
The pass protection of the Rams' offensive line, albeit very good, isn't quite as stellar as their run blocking. They've been able to protect Goff very well throughout the season, but they are not impenetrable. John Sullivan, their center, has been the weak link in pass protection.
The Patriots, a top 3 team in terms of QB pressure rate, have taken their pass rush to an even higher level in the postseason. In their game against the Chargers, they pressured Rivers on 70% of the snaps in the 1st half, before going to a softer defense in the 2nd half to protect a virtually insurmountable lead. Against the Chiefs, they pressured Mahomes on 50% of his snaps.
The Patriots have had success getting pressure by blitzing, but also by using defensive line stunts with only 4 guys. In this game, the key will be to confuse Goff with a variety of different and disguised fronts. The amoeba front will be one of those fronts. The unpredictability and shapelessness will make it very difficult for Jared Goff, who already is very limited in his ability to read a defense, to determine the intention of the New England defenders. Where is the pressure coming from? What is the proper blocking assignment? Will they change their coverage right before the snap? These are all questions that Goff will be asking himself, and he will have to make decisions based on his answers - something he has had trouble doing. Goff has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when under pressure, so confusing him and his offensive line pre-snap, will go along way to making sure that he is under constant duress, and thus limiting their offense.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Rams passing game
The Rams have had a very explosive and dynamic passing attack in 2018. The majority of their production in the passing game comes from their WR duo of Woods and Cooks. Both of them have topped the 1000 yard mark this season. However, they've also gotten production from Todd Gurley, Josh Reynolds, and Cooper Kupp. Kupp was one of their most valuable weapons, because he helped the Rams convert key 3rd downs and helped keep the chains moving. Unfortunately, he was placed on injured reserve, so he will not be available for them in Super Bowl LIII.
The Rams passing attack is set up by their running game. They love play action passes, bootlegs, and screen passes to their RBs.
The Patriots' secondary has been arguably the best in the league in 2018. They have a lot of talent and depth at the position. This season, they've shut down the following elite receivers: Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce twice. In the AFCCG, they held Tyreek Hill to just one catch and 40 yards.
The Patriots primarily deploy Cover 1 and Cover 3, with a preference for man coverage. Jared Goff has performed better against man coverage than zone coverage, but a lot of that was due to Cooper Kupp, who was able to get open relatively quickly against man coverage. WRs Woods and Cooks have not fared as well. Additionally, the Patriots are the best man coverage team in the league.
The Patriots will likely mix between Cover 1 and Cover 3, and possibly even some Cover 0 with amoeba fronts. As previously mentioned, Goff is not the best pre-snap reader of defenses. The Patriots will likely disguise their coverages pre-snap to confuse him. For example, they could show Cover 0, and then have one or two safeties retreat into Cover 1 or Cover 2. When in man coverage, Gilmore will likely be on Woods, Jonathan Jones, Jason McCourty, or Keion Crossen will probably rotate on Cooks with safety help over the top. JC Jackson on Josh Reynolds. They could also take one of Jones, Jason McCourty, or Crossen and put him on Reynolds, and have JC Jackson on one of their tight ends. When it comes to Gurley, the Patriots will probably blitz over him at times, in order to keep him in pass protection and prevent him from getting a clean release into his route tree. They will have their defensive ends chip him as he leaks out, and Patrick Chung will be tasked with covering him. The Rams' tight ends are not big threats, and when the Patriots have played teams without playmakers at TE, they have usually had Chung cover RBs in the passing game, which he has done superbly.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Rams run defense
Wade Phillips runs a 3-4 defense with an under front, and has done so for his entire career as a defensive coordinator and head coach. LA's run defense has been among the worst in the league throughout the season, but they have put together two very good performances in the postseason. The improvement can be credited to the play of their two star defensive tackles - Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. They have been very physical at the point of attack, and they've caused a lot of disruption. However, they are still vulnerable to runs along the edges.
New England's run game has been dominant in recent weeks. The offensive line has played incredibly well. not only has each individual linemen performed superbly, but Dante Scarnecchia's coaching, and his elaborate blocking schemes, have also aided the run blocking.
The Patriots have experience running against Wade's 3-4 under front, and they have done so successfully in the past.
Expect them to mix it up with jets sweeps to Cordarrelle Patterson, outside zone runs with White and Michel, and even some draw plays to take advantage of Donald's and Suh's aggressiveness.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Rams pass rush
The Rams are the #1 team in terms of QB pressure rate in 2018. Most of that pressure comes from Aaron Donald on the inside. Donald is likely to be named defensive player of the year after a dominant 2018. Of course, the Rams also have other defenders who can get after the QB. DE Michale Brockers, DT Ndamukong Suh, and DE Dante Fowler are also very capable pass rushers.
The Patriots have played against Suh many times when he was a member of the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins. They have usually handled him fairly well, both with double and single blocks.
The Patriots have played Aaron Donald only once, but held him to zero sacks and only a couple of pressures. The Patriots did not double him on every snap. Shaq Mason was able to single block Donald on several occasions, which allowed Brady to get the ball out at lightning speed with his quick release.
The Patriots have arguably had the best pass blocking offensive line in the NFL this season. This unit will have to come up big once again if the team is to win its record tying 6th Super Bowl. They may not win their match ups decisively on every snap, but if they can slow down the Rams' pass rush enough for Brady to get the ball out quickly to his receivers, their offense will be very productive. The Patriots will get everyone from their OL, to their TEs, to their HBs and FB, involved in pass blocking. They will look to keep the Rams' defensive line off balance by continuously switching their assignments, using a variety of blocking schemes, and having their linemen blocking from different angles.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Rams pass defense
The Rams usually deploy a single high safety look, and they lean towards zone coverage, although they do play a fair amount of man coverage as well. Interestingly, although the single high safety is supposed to be effective when it comes to defending the middle of the field, the Rams are actually one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending that area of the field at all levels. This would indicate that there is an issue with personnel. Unfortunately for them, this is the exact area of the field where the Patriots excel.
LA's best corner is former Patriot Aqib Talib. However, Talib plays mostly on the outside, and has historically struggled against quick shifty receivers like Julian Edelman, even when he was in his prime. Marcus Peters has played poorly this year. Nickell Robey-Coleman, who is their slot corner, has a history of struggles against New England from his days in Buffalo. This cornerback corps does not match up well with New England's receivers. On top of that, their linebackers showed vulnerability against pass catching running backs and TEs in the NFCCG.
Another weakness of the Rams' defense is defending the play action pass - which is another strength of the New England offense. Their defense, especially their linebackers, are so aggressive, that they can be exploited on these play fakes.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
