Week 1: Texans vs Patriots

Patriots defensive line vs Texans offensive line

Each team will boast a new look along the defensive and offensive line, respectively. The Patriots have added Adrian Clayborn at defensive end and Danny Shelton at defensive tackle. Second year DT Lawrence Guy is poised to become a regular contributor and a starter. New England's pass rush and run defense should see a boost with the aforementioned additions.

The Texans have a lot of new faces in their offensive line as well, with C Nick Martin being the only returning regular from 2017. LT Julién Davenport, who was a rookie last season and became a starter late in the season, will also be returning. Everyone else will be making their regular season debut in a Texans uniform, featuring a couple of mid-round draft picks and low tier free agents. Even with the overhaul, the Texans OL is projected to be a weakness in 2018 once again.

The key in this match-up, however, will be the way in which Bill Belichick has historically approached mobile quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson. Houston's weakness along the OL may give New England some opportunities to exploit mismatches, but the Patriots defensive line will be looking to contain Watson for most of the game. This will likely mean that a linebacker will be used as a spy, with the defensive ends avoiding too deep a pass rush and force the quarterback to the sidelines of he breaks containment in the pocket. Bill Belichick has shown a tremendous amount of respect for opposing QBs who can run the ball effectively. At times, this can make for a frustrating afternoon, as the lack of pass rush in favor of keeping the QB in the pocket will give the QB ample time to find the open man. This could be deadly against the talented Deshaun Watson, as the Patriots found out early in 2017, when he went 22-33 for 301 yards and 2 TDs in a close overtime win by New England.

Houston's running attack will be led by Lamar Miller. The Patriots are familiar with him from his days in Miami. He has run fairly well against them, but only has one career rushing TD against the Patriots, and has come out on the wrong side of the scoreboard the majority of the time he has faced them. With the additions to New England's OL, the run defense should be much improved in 2018. The biggest threat in the running game could very well come from the Houston QB, as previously mentioned.

Match-up edge: Patriots. However, the caveat is that Deshaun Watson could throw a wrench into everything if the Patriots let him break containment.

Patriots linebackers vs Texans running backs

Much has been made about the lack of athleticism and pass coverage ability of the Patriots over the last couple of years, ever since they traded away star LB Jamie Collins in 2016. That year, they ended up winning the Super Bowl as the #1 ranked defense in the league. Last year, they came within one score of winning their 3rd Lombardi trophy in 4 years, and 6th overall. So despite this weakness, they have been able to maintain a great deal of success. Kyle Van Noy has shown solid coverage skills at times and has been getting rave reviews throughout training camp. Having said that, it can pose a match-up problem if the opponent has the tools to take advantage of it. However, few teams have the tools. Lamar Miller can be a reliable pass catcher out of the backfield, but he is hardly explosive in that role - like say, Kareem Hunt. The Texans should definitely try to exploit this match up, but the Patriots will counter by using a DE or LB to chip him at the line of scrimmage and knock him off his route. Outside of Miller, the Texans do not have any weapons with which to attack the middle of the New England defense.

Dont'a Hightower's return will also add a spark to New England's run defense. His presence on the field goes beyond just his physical attributes, however, as he is the leader of that unit. His ability to diagnose a play is invaluable.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots secondary vs Texans receivers

In the last couple of years, the Patriots have played a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 2 man, mixed in with some Cover 3, against the Texans, dating back to the Brock Osweiler days. Against Brock Osweiler, who was not very mobile, the Patriots could play Cover 1 and Cover 2 man without fear of Brock running wild over them, while being able to shut down DeAndre Hopkins and their #2 threat. Against Watson, it will be more important to mix coverages and to show him a variety of looks. Since the defensive line's main goal will be to keep Watson in the pocket as opposed to rushing him, the players in the secondary will have to be draped all over their assignments at all times. Gilmore will likely be matched up against DeAndre Hopkins, Jonathan Jones will likely be tasked with covering Ellington in the slot. and Eric Rowe should be covering Will Fuller. Gilmore was a legitimate shut down corner down the stretch and in the postseason in 2018. Jonathan Jones showed a lot of promise towards the end of the season, and is poised to make an impact as a slot corner. If there is one match-up that Houston might be able to exploit, it will be Rowe vs Fuller. Rowe has been inconsistent whenever he has seen the field as a Patriot, which hasn't been much thanks to injury. Fuller has given the Texans good production in his first 2 years as a pro, and his speed could be an issue for Rowe. Expect Rowe to have some safety help over the top. When it comes to Houston's tight ends, they are not known for being threats in the passing game. Expect Patrick Chung to cover Ryan Griffin in certain situations. Patrick Chung was one of the highest rate safeties in the league last season when covering tight ends.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots offensive line vs Texans defensive line

On the offensive line, the Patriots have many of the same faces. Marcus Cannon, who was a 2nd team All-Pro in 2016, returns after spending most of 2017 on the injured reserve, and Trent Brown was added to the mix in a trade with the Browns. This unit has been inconsistent over the years, but these two additions should result in an improvement in 2018. How much of an improvement remains to be seen. The Texans have a couple of elite edge pass rushers in JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. The Patriots have been able to successfully neutralize JJ Watt throughout his career, but he broke through and had a very good outing in last season's meeting. Clowney had a big game as well, recording 2 sacks and a fumble return. The Texans had a lot of success getting to the QB in that game, and they look poised to have another big day on Sunday. The Patriots OL will have their hands full with Watt, Clowney, and Mercilus. Look for the Texans to use multiple fronts to keep Brady and the OL guessing and to generate a heavy dose of pressure. Additionally, the Texans front 7 are adept run stoppers, so I don't foresee the Patriots utilizing the run game much.

Match-up edge: Texans.

Patriots running backs vs Texans linebackers

The Patriots have a couple of running backs who run routes as well as most wide receivers. James White has been a key part of the offensive for a while now, including an heroic performance in New England's SBLI overtime victory, and Rex Burkhead was utilized effectively in that role last year as well. This should be an area where New England can have some success, as they target Houston's linebackers with White and Burkhead. The Texan linebackers leave a lot to be desired in pass coverage. The two running backs could play a huge role in the passing game, as they will be Brady's safety valves when Houston brings pressure. Brady will look to get the ball out quickly to White or Burkead to evade the pass rush. Burkehead in particular could be a match up nightmare for Houston, because he can be as much of a threat running the ball between the tackles as he is catching it. Look for the Patriots to try to create mis-matches by isolating White or Burkhead in coverage against Houston's LBs using pre-snap motion.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots receivers vs Texans secondary

For the first time in 5 years, the Patriots wide receiving corps might be considered a weakness on offense. It's not all bad news, as the Patriots still have the most dominant tight end in the game, along with Chris Hogan, who has been a productive WR during his time in New England, but the loss of Cooks and Amendola to free agency and Edelman's suspension could hurt the team for the first month of the season. Outside of Hogan, Phillip Dorset and Cordarrelle Patterson have shown promise during training camp. It will be interesting to see how New England uses Patterson in his Patriots debut. Throughout his career, he has been an All-Pro kick returner and occasionally a gadget weapon on offense. He is capable of giving the team an explosive play every now and then, but the question is if he can he earn Brady's trust to become a regular contributor at wide receiver. If there is one positive for this wide receiving corps, it's that they will be matched up against a CB unit that might be equally as unimpressive. Much maligned cornerbacks Jonathan Joseph and Kevin Johnson do not strike fear in the hearts of receivers. At safety, All-Pro Tyrann Mathieu will be making his debut in a Texans uniform, which will mark the first time has has played against Tom Brady. One would think that he will be tasked with covering TE Rob Gronkowski on a large number of snaps, though it will be interesting to see if they double or triple cover him, given New England's lack of threats at wide receiver.

Match-up edge: Even.