Week 10: Patriots vs Titans

Patriots run defense vs Titans running game

Like many teams the Patriots have faced this season, and many teams in the NFL in general, the Tennessee Titans employ a zone-blocking scheme in the running game. Matt LaFleur, the new offensive coordinator for the Titans, brings some of the same principles to this offense from his prior experience in Washington, Atlanta, and from his first year as an offensive coordinator last season with the LA Rams. They use a lot of misdirection, and their zone run game is usually utilized to set up the play-action pass.

Overall, Tennessee's running game has been subpar this season. Former Patriot Dion Lewis is their leading rusher with 339 yards, but is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. Derrick Henry, who is their power back, is averaging just 3.3 yards. A lot of this is due to the poor run blocking of their offensive line. However, they did have a good performance in London against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago.

The Patriots' run defense continues to be middle of the pack. Against Green Bay, they gave up 117 yards on the ground and 4.7 yards per carry, but they spent a lot of time in nickel and dime with a lighter front. They were more focused on defending the pass against one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Against the Titans, I would expect more 7 man fronts.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots pass rush vs Titans pass protection

The Tennessee Titans arguably have the best tackle duo in the NFL with Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin. However, the interior of their offensive line has been vulnerable. QB Marcus Mariota has been sacked a total of 23 times, which is tied for 8th in the league. They have been playing better recently, but they are still flawed and inconsistent.

Meanwhile, despite the lack of total sacks, the Patriots' pass rush has been on fire this season. They continue to be among the league leaders in pressure rate, and their ability to get after the quarterback helped them limit Green Bay's offense to just 17 points last week. Rodgers was under constant duress, which led to a completion rate of just 55%. The DEs were holding the edge, and the DTs were bursting up the middle, and together they collapsed the pocket very effectively around Rodgers. The Packers have had one of the better offensive lines this season, so that was an impressive performance.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots pass defense vs Titans passing game

As previously mentioned, new Tennessee offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur has drawn on his previous experience, and has incorporated a lot of what he learned in Washington, Atlanta, and LA. The read option, RPO, trips formation, misdirection, screen passes, jet sweeps, etc., have all been a part of this Tennessee offense this season. Some of these are things that have caused issues for New England's defense, and the Titans certainly do have the personnel to take advantage of some of the Patriots' weaknesses. Former Patriot Dion Lewis is a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield. However, LaFleur's inexperience as a play caller, Marcus Mariota's inconsistency, along with some poor offensive line play, have held this offense back. They rank 30th in yards per game and 29th in points scored per game, only averaging 16.8 points.

The Patriots, on the other hand, have looked good in pass coverage recently. They held Green Bay to just 17 points, and Aaron Rodgers' stat line was very subpar - only 259 yards, 6 yards per attempt, and a 55% completion rate. Davante Adams, who was mostly guarded by Stephon Gilmore, was held to just 40 yards. Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, Devin McCourty, and Patrick Chung have all looked good in coverage as well. Patrick Chung has been used against RBs catching passes out of the backfield at times this season, and in fact did a good job on Indianapolis RB Nyheim Hines. I would expect him to be matched up against Dion Lewis for a good portion of the game on Sunday.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots running game vs Titans run defense

After looking porous at the beginning of the season, the Tennessee run defense has looked very stout in recent weeks. The most impressive performance came last week against Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys. They held him to just 61 yards, and Dallas was only able to average 3.8 yards per carry. This unit was ranked near the bottom of the league, but thanks to a string of consecutive impressive performances, they are now ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed per game, and 9th in yards allowed per carry.

The Patriots have been without starting RB Sony Michel for a couple of weeks, and they've had mixed results. A poor performance on the ground in Buffalo, followed by a solid showing against Green Bay, where an unlikely player emerged as the rushing leader. WR Cordarrelle Patterson accumulated 61 yards on 11 carries, including a TD. Patterson showed a much lower pad level this past week, which helped his performance. He was fast and elusive, and displayed an ability to break tackles. Sony Michel's availability is still unknown, however, and that could hurt the run game against a run defense that is rounding into form.

Match-up edge: Titans.

Patriots pass protection vs Titans pass rush

While the Tennessee pass rush may have come alive on Monday against the Cowboys, they did so against an offensive line that has given up a ton of pressure throughout the season. Prior to this game, they struggled to harass the opposing QB.

On the other side, the New England offensive line continues to play very well in pass protection. Tom Brady was barely under duress against Green Bay, a team that had been among the best in the league in terms of generating pressure.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots passing game vs Titans pass defense

The absence of Gronkowski and Michel led many to believe that New England's offense would take a big hit. However, since the Chicago game, when New England has missed one or both, they have still averaged 31 points per game. This is due in large part to Edelman getting healthier and Josh Gordon getting more comfortable in the system. Both of them have been big contributors to the offense's success in Gronk's and Michel's absence.

The Titans are the #1 ranked defense in terms of points per game allowed, averaging only 17.6 per game. Their pass defense has been their strength. Former Patriot Malcolm Butler had been struggling and gave up a pair of touchdowns to Dallas on Monday. Another former Patriot, Logan Ryan, has been having a solid season, as has Adoree Jackson.

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Dean Pees have both used a ton of man coverage in their previous roles. It's no surprise then, that the Titans have have employed a lot of Cover 2 man in 2018. Against the Patriots, who have dangerous weapons that are very difficult to cover, it may be too much for them to handle. It will be a tough ask for Ryan to cover Edelman in the slot and for Jackson to cover Josh Gordon. Then they will also have to deal with James White, who is a serious match up issues catching passes out of the backfield.

Match-up edge: Patriots.