Week 12: Patriots vs Jets
Patriots run defense vs Jets running game
The Jets were a man-blocking offense until last season when they switched to a zone-blocking scheme. Their offensive line has struggled badly in the run blocking department. LG James Carpenter, their oldest offensive linemen, has had trouble adjusting to the new zone blocking scheme. That, in combination with his age catching up with him, have made him a liability. Their C Spencer Long and RG Brian Winters have had issues as well. As if that wasn't enough, they lost RB Bilal Powell to injury. Powell was their most consistent back prior to his injury. Isaiah Crowell is New York's leader in rushing yards, but over half of those came in just two games. He had games of 219 yards and 102 yards, but has zero games of 50 yards or more in any other game this season.
The Patriots' run defense has been very inconsistent in 2018. They've had stellar performances, but they've also had very subpar outings. In terms of rushing yards allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per carry, they are middle of the back. However, given New York's poor passing attack, New England should feel comfortable having 7 defenders in the box quite frequently on Sunday. Add to that the fact that the Jets' running game has been lackluster and the fact that the Patriots are coming off a bye, and they should be able to handle this running attack with relative ease.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass rush vs Jets pass protection
In addition to struggling in run blocking, New York's offensive line has performed poorly in pass protection as well, especially the interior of their line. While they haven't given up many sacks (they have given up the 13th fewest) they do allow a significant amount of pressure up the middle. Carpenter, Long, and Winters should all be exploited by New England in pass protection.
The Patriots continue to be among the league leaders in generating pressure. They haven't accumulated many sacks, but they do make life hard for opposing quarterbacks, and that pressure has resulted in turnovers. Look for them to target the interior of the Jets' offensive line and get right into the opposing quarterback's face (it's uncertain whether Darnold or McCown will get the start.)
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Jets passing game
The Jets hired Jeremy Bates as their new offensive coordinator last winter, and with him, he brought the West Coast offense. The Jets' offense this season is predicated on spreading teams horizontally and accumulating yards after the catch. They like to use a lot of pre-snap motion, and they love the sail concept. The sail concept give rookie QB Darnold an easy read, and it also floods the zone and creates a numbers disadvantage for the defense. Schematically, they could pose some issues for New England. Their pass catches are big and fast and have shown the ability to create separation, but their quarterback play and offensive line have held this offense back this season.
The Patriots' secondary has been good this season. Week 10 in Tennessee was an anomaly, as everyone at every position, including the offense, defense, and special teams, played a very poor game. Even Stephon Gilmore, who is arguably the best cornerback in the league, was getting beat constantly. I wouldn't expect another subpar performance, especially coming off of a bye week. However, they will need to be well prepared, because even though the Jets have struggled offensively in 2018, some of their concepts can pose some issues for New England's defense. The linebackers will be targeted frequently, and the zone coverage of New England will be stressed, so their communication will need to be on point. Given the lack of a deep passing attack, and New York's ability to stress a zone defense, this could be a game that calls for a lot of Cover 1 from New England.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Jets run defense
The Jets' run defense has been average during the 2018 campaign. Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense is very fluid and flexible. While his base is a 3-4, he will often use other alignments, such as a 4-3, 3-3-5, and 2-4-5, and likes to use formations with 3 safeties on the field at once. The defensive linemen in his scheme are tasked with occupying blockers and space to allow the linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties to execute their assignments. The overall performance of the defensive front against the run hasn't been disastrous - it's been middle of the pack, as mentioned - but they have had disastrous individual games. The one that comes to mind was the week 10 game against Buffalo, when the Bills ran for 212 yards. The significance of this is that the Bills ran the ball in a similar fashion to how the Patriots have rushed this season at times. Buffalo employed a lot of outside zone scheme with a sweep. New England has used jet motion with zone blocking on outside runs on numerous occasions this season. This is something the Patriots should be able to exploit schematically.
When the Patriots have been healthy this season, they've had one of the better offensive lines in the league, especially on the interior, and their rushing attack has been very efficient. Luckily, RG Shaq Mason and RB Sony Michel are both expected to play, which should provide a boost in this department.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Jets pass rush
One of the big stories coming out of New England's loss in Tennessee was how the offense struggled against the blitz. The offensive line failed to give Brady enough time to go through his reads, and Brady was too slow going through his process.
The Jets will present a great test for the Patriots on Sunday, given their blitz heavy defense. Only 4 teams have blitzed more than the Jets in 2018. Todd Bowles likes to use a lot of exotic overload blitzes to create free rushers. Safety Jamal Adams is a big part of their blitz packages - he almost acts like a linebacker. He will be someone that the Patriots must account for on every snap.
As previously mentioned, Shaq Mason is expected to make his return from injury, and not only will he boost the running attack, but he should also provide much needed protection for Tom Brady. However, it will be up to everyone along the offensive line, as well as the RBs and TEs to pick up the blitz and help protect their QB. Perhaps they can also take a page out of the Bills' playbook, who often kept 7 men in to block when the Jets blitzed, including on some of their longest pass plays of the game.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Jets pass defense
The Jets use a heavy dose of man coverage, and sprinkle in some zone blitzes. They have anywhere from 4 ot 7 defensive backs out on the field at once, and they like to disguise their coverages. Their pass defense has been average this season, but if there is one weakness, it's their ability, or lack thereof, to cover the deep pass.
The Patriots had a poor showing all around against Tennessee, and their passing attack was no exception. The amount of pressure the Titans were able to get on Brady was a factor, but the receivers had trouble getting separation as well. Since Edelman's return and Gordon's acquisition, that has not been a problem, so I would not expect to see that kind of performance going forward. It will also help that TE Rob Gronkowski will be making his return this week. Gronk has had several weeks to rest, and will hopefully be able to provide invigorate this Patriots offense.
Since the Jets play a lot of man coverage, I would expect Claiborne to be on Gordon, Skrine to cover Edelman inside the slot, and Johnson to cover Hogan. When it comes to Gronk, the Jets have two options - safety Jamal Adams or linebacker Darron Lee - both of whom are very good in pass coverage. The Jets will also have to account for James White out of the backfield, who can be a dangerous weapon in the passing game. Darron Lee will likely see a lot of work against White when he is not covering Gronk. Avery Williamson will likely take that role when Lee is busy elsewhere. Both of these LBs are good in coverage, especially Lee.
This may not be a game where New England puts up impressive offensive numbers. New York, despite all of their struggles, do have an above average defense. The Jets will be playing at home, and they always bring their A game against their division foes. Having said that, I expect New England to have success on the ground, and therefore they will be able to utilize the play-action pass to make key plays downfield against a secondary that is susceptible against deep passing plays. The Patriots should also have success in the slot, which will allow them to keep the chains moving with intermediate passes to Edelman.
Match-up edge: Even.
