Week 13: Vikings vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Vikings running game
The Minnesota Vikings are a pass heavy offense. Of the 32 teams in the league, no team has run the ball on a fewer percentage of their snaps than the Vikings. This makes sense, given that they have the best wide receiver duo in the league and a run game that has been among the worst in the NFL.
The poor production in the run game doesn't fall on the two running backs - Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. Cook has been banged up for most of the season, but the real culprit is the run blocking of their offensive line. Minnesota's OL has been a much maligned unit this season. They have failed to open up running lanes for their backs, and so their ground attack has suffered greatly as a result, only averaging 3.9 yards per carry and 85.3 yards per game.
New England's run defense has been middle of the pack in 2018. They've had some good individual performances from guys like Trey Flowers, Lawrence Guy, Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, and Patrick Chung, but they've been inconsistent as a unit. On Sunday, they should have a lot of success at home against one of the worst running games in the NFL.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass rush vs Vikings pass protection
While the Vikings offensive line has been better in pass protection than it has been in run blocking, they are still susceptible to giving up pressure on QB Kirk Cousins. This wasn't a talented unit to begin with, but they've also had to deal with injuries across the line.
The Patriots, who are top 3 in the NFL in getting pressure on the QB, had another stellar game in this department against the Jets. They pressured McCown on over half of his dropbacks. Trey Flowers, who has been dominant all season, and is arguably the team's best defender, had a superb game. He continues to be a disruptive force from both the outside and inside of the defensive line.
Look for the Patriots to use a lot of DL stunts to confuse Cousins. The Bears had a lot of success utilizing stunts and abusing Minnesota's offensive line, both on the edge and up the middle, and the Patriots have been exceptional on DL stunts this season.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Vikings passing game
The Vikings hired John DeFilippo as their new offensive coordinator earlier in the year. DeFilippo is a former offensive quality control coach with the Giants, quarterbacks coach with the Jets under Rex Ryan, last year he won the SB as a quarterbacks coach with the Eagles. Needless to say, he comes from a West Coast offense background and is very familiar with the Patriots. DeFilippo has introduced many half field concepts to make reads easier for QB Kirk Cousins. The Vikings use a lot of half field concepts that stretch both sides of the field. They love the high-low plays, with a corner route and a route to the flat. They will also use a vertical release in combination with the route to the flat. When they get near the goal line, they like to have a receiver show a quick out before quickly turning up field to give Cousins a quick release option.
The Vikings have the best WR duo in the NFL with Diggs and Thielen. Both can play outside as well as in the slot, but Thielen will get the majority of his snaps from inside the slot, while Diggs plays mostly on the outside. Their RB Dalvin Cook has not had a productive year running the ball - mostly due to injuries and a weak offensive line - has been a very good pass catcher out of the backfield. Given that the Patriots' linebackers have been susceptible against good pass catching RBs for a while now (the Jets being the most recent team to take advantage of this last week, albeit in a losing effort) you can expect Cooks to see a lot of targets. Their TE, Kyle Rudolph, is a capable pass catcher, but he's not a game changer who can take over a game by himself.
The two teams that have given the Vikings' offense the most trouble this season have been the Buffalo Bills and the Chicago Bears. A lot of their success came as a result of their pass rush, but they did some things with their coverages that gave Minnesota trouble as well. The Bears, like the Patriots, are mostly a Cover 1 and Cover 3 defense. The Bills played a lot of Cover 2 in their win, since they got up to a big lead early, but they also used some Cover 3. They disguised their Cover 3 by showing a two high safety look pre-snap, and it looked like this confused Cousins. The Patriots will mix their coverages like they normally do, but this shows that the coverages that they normally run have been successful when executed well and when accompanied by a strong pass rush. Given the dual WR threat of Diggs and Thielen, I would expect some more Cover 2 than usual.
This will be a challenge for New England's pass defense. Their secondary should be up to the task, but the question remains at linebacker. How will they handle Cooks out of the backfield and Rudolph from the TE position? The Vikings do some things schematically that can pose some issues, so long as Kirk Cousins has enough time in the pocket. One area where the Vikings have struggled, though, is inside of the red zone. Even though they've been able to move the ball fairly well between the 20s, once they get inside of the 20 yard line they seem to stall frequently.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots running game vs Vikings run defense
The Vikings are a top 5 defense against the run. They have a star studded front 7 with players like Sheldon Richardson, Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr, etc. Mike Zimmer's 4-3 defense isn't your typical 4-3 defense. It's very fluid and constantly evolving. He puts an emphasis on stopping the run, and it shows.
Now that Sony Michel is starting to get healthy, the Patriots running game is starting to look like a force once again. Michel had a career game against the Jets last week, and as good as he looked, the offensive line looked even better. They dominated the Jets' defensive front and opened wide running lanes for Michel.
The Patriots will have a tough task this week against a stout Minnesota run defense, but in week 7 against the Bears - who allow fewer yards per carry than any other team in the league - they put up 108 yards on the ground on the road. With the offensive line playing so well, Gronk's presence and superb run blocking, and Michel's return to form, the Patriots should have a good game on the ground at home.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Vikings pass rush
The Vikings rank 7th in pressure rate this season and are tied for 3rd in sacks. That talented front 7 isn't only stout against the run - they can get after the passer, too. Danielle Hunter is the team's most productive pass rusher (11.5 sacks) but they can get pressure from just about everyone in their front 7. They also like to have their All-Pro safety Harrison Smith get involved in the pass rush. They are very good at disguising pressure and timing their blitzes well.
The Patriots' offensive line has done a fantastic job of protecting Brady for the most part when healthy. They will need another strong effort against a very capable pass rushing unit.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Vikings pass defense
Minnesota is a top 5 ranked pass defense in 2018. Despite early struggles, their defense has been playing very well across the board. Mike Zimmer employs a mix of Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3. They play a lot of press man coverage, and they mix in a lot of zone coverage as well. Harrison Smith has continued playing at a high level after being named a 1st Team All-Pro in 2017. Xavier Rhodes is among the best CBs in the league, but suffered a hamstring injury last week against Green Bay. He is expected to play, but who knows what impact the injury will have on his performance.
The Patriots' passing attack has been up and down this season. Injuries and the early suspension to Julian Edelman have held this offense back, but when healthy, they've been nearly unstoppable. With Edelman, Gordon, Gronk, and Michel playing at the same time, they are 4-0 and are averaging 33 points per game. All four are expected to take the field on Sunday for the second consecutive week. Much has been made about Brady's struggles against the blitz in Tennessee, but against a formidable Jets defense, he looked like his former self.
The Patriots have excelled in play-action pass plays this season. They are experts in making a defense think that they will run when they are actually about to pass, and that they will pass when they are about to run. A lot of their play-action plays are out of looks that make the defense think a run play is coming. The credit goes to Josh McDaniels and his intelligent and creative play calling.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, they have struggled immensely when it comes to defending the play-action pass. Their front 7 are extremely aggressive, and the play-action gets them to bite on the fake, leaving the back end of their defense exposed. The Patriots will certainly be looking to expose this weakness in key situations on Sunday.
Match-up edge: Even.
