Week 14: Patriots vs Dolphins
Patriots run defense vs Dolphins running game
This is the second meeting between the two teams in 2018 after New England's convincing 38-7 victory in week 4. This time, the two squads will square off in Miami - a place where the Patriots have struggled, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Over that stretch, the Patriots have allowed 114 rushing yards per game. This, combined with the hot a humid Miami weather, has allowed the Dolphins to tire out New England's defense in the later stages of the game.
The Dolphins' running game this season has not been very strong. They are in the bottom half of the league, and their top two rushers have only one 100 yard game between them (Frank Gore with 101 yards in an OT game vs the Bengals.) In their week 4 game against the Patriots in Foxboro, Miami ran the ball 18 times for only 56 total yards. Despite some strong performances from Frank Gore, Miami's run game has struggled due to the weak run blocking from their offensive line. However, if there is one area where they excel, it is running to the left side. When running to the right, or up the middle, they are among the worst teams in the league. When running to the left, they are actually pretty formidable. It looks like their linemen are more comfortable in the zone blocking scheme when blocking to the left.
The Patriots' run defense has been progressing throughout the season. Trey Flowers and Lawrence Guy continue to perform well in this area, and Adrian Clayborn and Dont'a Hightower have improved from their early struggles. Kyle Van Noy is arguably having his best season in a Patriots uniform. Most importantly, they are playing well as a unit. They will need a duplicate performance of their week 4 effort on Sunday, but in the Miami heat and humidity, this will be much easier said than done.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass rush vs Dolphins pass protection
Miami's pass protection has been decent in 2018. They haven't been in the top echelon in that regard, but they haven't been a complete disaster, either. Nick O'Leary, their tight end, has contributed positively to this aspect of Miami's game.
Last week against the Vikings, the Patriots had yet another strong performance from their pass rush, and they continue to be 3rd in the league in pressure rate. They've had success getting pressure from both the interior and the edge. In the week 4 match up against Miami, they sacked Tannehill twice, and disrupted their passing game by constantly harassing him on a high percentage of snaps.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Dolphins passing game
The Patriots' pass rush was a significant contributing factor for Miami's struggles on offense in the week 4 match up, but Miami's gameplan played a role as well. Against a defense who had shown zero ability to stop certain concepts early in the season - the Patriots were gashed in weeks 2 and 3 on mesh concepts and passes to RBs out of the backfield - Miami bizarrely decided to implement a deep passing attack against New England's talented secondary. These routes took so long to develop that the Patriots' pass rush was getting to Tannehill long before he had an opportunity to make a play downfield. It will be interesting to see if Miami changes their gameplan this time around. If they do, they certainly have the personnel to have some success.
For their part, the Patriots struggled against some of the same concepts that plagued them early in the season against Kansas City, and to a degree, the Jets. Both teams were able to target the linebackers successfully - more so the Chiefs. But they have also had good performances covering talented receiving RBs out of the backfield - in particular, Tarik Cohen of Chicago, and Dalvin Cook of Minnesota.
While the performance of the linebackers in coverage is still up and down, the secondary continues to be among the best in the league. Stephon Gilmore is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, Jason McCourty has played superbly both outside and in the slot, J.C. Jackson has received more playing time given Jonathan Jones' struggles and has made the most of it, and the safeties, led by Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty have played very well in their roles.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots running game vs Dolphins run defense
The Dolphins head into Sunday's game with arguably the worst run defense in the league. Their defensive front has been missing assignments, running into the wrong gaps, and missing tackles for most of the season. Even when they do all of these things correctly, they are still getting physically dominated and are having issues getting off their blocks. This is a 4-3 defense that has not gotten consistently good defensive tackle play. Good play from the DT position is important in a 4-3 defense. If a DT can swallow up offensive linemen, it allows the linebackers to roam from sideline to sideline each play and to penetrate the backfield.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have had a stellar running game this season. Their offensive line, along with their tight ends, have done a fantastic job of blocking up front, and Michel, White, and now Rex Burkhead, have taken advantage of it. Rex Burkhead returned from in jury last week against the Vikings, and look very good in the limited number of snaps he saw. Sony Michel continues to be a tough downhill runner with an ability to break tackles and create extra yardage. The most impressive part about the Patriots' running game is how it has performed against some of the best run defenses in the league - in particular, Chicago and Minnesota.
The Patriots ran all over the Dolphins in week 4, and since this is such an enormous mismatch, I would expect them to run the ball frequently on Sunday.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Dolphins pass rush
The Dolphins' pass rush has been coming on strong in recent games. Their pass rushers are very talented and versatile. They've got guys that can get to the QB with power, and they've got guys who can get there with speed. Cameron Wake, Robert Quinn, Charles Harris, can all wreak havoc, and even Andre Branch can contribute as a rotational player. Cameron Wake has had some strong games against New England in the past, especially in Miami, so they will need him to be very disruptive this weekend.
The Patriots' offensive line is coming off of another great performance against one of the best defenses in the league, and more importantly, one of the best defensive fronts in the league. The Dolphin's pass rush has been a nuisance for Brady in Miami in recent years, so the OL will need another strong effort. Now that they are healthy, and they've got Rob Gronkowski (who is still an exceptional blocker) back, and James White seems to have corrected his issues in blitz pick-up, Brady should be well protected, even against Miami's solid pass rush. The only question is if they can pass protect effectively throughout the game, on a day that is supposed to be very hot and humid.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots passing game vs Dolphins pass defense
Outside of their pass rush, the Dolphins' defense has been bottom tier in every aspect, and it's no different when it comes to defending the pass. They are allowing, on average, a 66% completion rate and 8.1 yards per attempt to opposing QBs in 2018. Outside of elite CB Xavien Howard, they have been very poor in coverage, especially their linebackers.
The Patriots are coming off a game where they generated 311 passing yards against one of the best defenses in the league. Josh Gordon continues to get more comfortable in the offense each week, and he's a threat on both intermediate and deep routes. Julian Edelman continues to be a dependable receiver who helps the team move the chains with key 3rd down catches. James White is an enormous threat out of the backfield, with 659 receiving yards on 74 catches and 6 TDs on the season. Last week, they added another weapon, as Rex Burkhead returned from injury. His route running looked very crisp, and in his limited snaps, caught 2 passes for 21 yards.
The Vikings had a good gameplan to limit New England's deep passing attack last week. They showed a lot of split safety looks and played a lot of zone early on. This limited New England's deep passing attempts, and instead they focused on the short passing game. If Miami tries a similar approach, New England should have a lot of success attacking the middle of Miami's defense with White. White had a good game against Miami in week 4, and he should be a big part of the gameplan this week, given the lack of coverage skills of the Dolphins' linebackers.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
