Week 15: Patriots vs Steelers

Patriots run defense vs Steelers running game

The Pittsburgh Steelers are on a 3 game losing streak. There are many contributing factors to their recent woes, but one of the most significant has been their lack of a running game. As greatly publicized, star RB Le'Veon Bell decided to sit out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute with the team. In his place, James Conner took over the starting RB role, and has looked very good for most of the season. Against the Chargers, however, he suffered a leg injury and was forced to miss the game against Oakland. The Steelers struggled to run the ball in that game, partly due to who they had to start at RB, but the issues with their running game has been present for about a month, and this includes games where Conner was their starter.

The Steelers hired Randy Fichtner as their new offensive coordinator over the off-season. While coaching in college, Fichtner loved to run a lot of sweep, power, and counter plays. He utilized gap run blocking schemes extensively. He and offensive line coach, Mike Munchak, have implemented these, and other concepts, this season. With Bell as their starter, and Todd Haley as their offensive coordinator, the Steelers ran a lot of inside zone, but now they are more committed to running whatever works best against the opposition.

The problem, however, is that their offensive line has been very poor in terms of run blocking in recent weeks. What's worse, is that this has come against very weak run defenses. Their offensive linemen have struggled to get to the second level, and they've had issues successfully implementing double teams. They've shown poor technique and they've had problems getting their footing underneath them. RT Marcus Gilbert, who has missed the last 7 games and is their best run blocker, has been greatly missed. His status, along with Conner's, is questionable for this Sunday.

On the other side, the Patriots have had their own issues when it comes to defending the run. The Miami Dolphins, which had been in the bottom half of the league, accumulated 189 yards on the ground, and posted 9 yards per carry. New England's run defense was starting to look solid prior to the Miami game, but as has been the case for the last 5 seasons, the Dolphins were able to impose their will on the Patriots in Miami.

Given that the Steelers like to incorporate power running concepts (which the Patriots tend to defend well against) and that Gilbert and Conner are banged up, the Patriots' run defense should bounce back this week.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots pass rush vs Steelers pass protection

While Pittsburgh's OL has struggled in the run game, they are arguably the best pass blocking line in the league. They've been able to protect Big Ben consistently throughout the season.

The Patriots' pass rush, meanwhile, continues to be one of the bright spots for the defense. They are 2nd in the league in pressure rate. They can get pressure with 4, and they can blitz effectively as well. They've been able to disguise pressure in very creative and intelligent ways, and the defensive line is one of the best in the league at executing stunts. They will need to get very creative with their disguises this week, and their execution will need to be on point against a very good pass blocking unit.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots pass defense vs Steelers passing game

The Steelers, as has been the case for many years now, are a pass heavy team. This season, due to some of their struggles in the run game, they've recorded the 5th fewest rushing attempts in the NFL. This is a very one dimensional offense that lives and dies by their passing attack. Having said that, it's a very potent passing attack. The duo of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster is very dynamic and explosive. James Conner (whose status is questionable for this game) has been a good weapon for them in the passing game, Ryan Switzer is a scrappy slot receiver who can make plays, and TE Vance McDonald has had a decent season.

The Steelers have run a lot of no-huddle offense under Randy Fichtner this season. The no-huddle was a staple of Fichtner's offenses in college. Not only does this up-tempo pace tire out opposing defenses and make it hard for them to substitute, but it also gives Big Ben more command and flexibility. He has been able switch plays up pre-snap based on defensive alignment more this season.

One of the reasons the Steelers' OL has been able to protect Big Ben so well is the fact that he gets rid of the ball so much faster than other QBs. The result of this is that his receivers are catching the ball closer to the line of scrimmage than the rest of the league. Where the Steelers have been able to exploit teams is after the catch - their receivers have been able to accumulate a ton of yards after the catch.

The Patriots played against another dynamic WR duo - arguably an even better one than they will play this week - recently when they faced the Minnesota Vikings. The Patriots were able to keep Adam Thielen and Stephon Diggs to a combined 77 yards. This was an excellent all around performance, and one that they will need to replicate this week. On that night, Gilmore was tasked with playing man-to-man on Diggs for most of the game, while the McCourty twins doubled Thielen for the majority of the time. The gameplan the Patriots used was very creative and unorthodox. They disguised their fronts and their coverages very well. They would have 3 safeties inside the box while leaving Diggs and Thielen alone on the outside. They would show Cover 0 or Cover 1 pre-snap, and then quickly retreat to Cover 3 post-snap. The amoeba fronts were used superbly to create confusion for the Vikings' offense. The amoeba front is a shapeless defense with at least 5 defenders in the box and one down linemen or fewer. The QB has trouble assigning protection against such a front, and it gives the defense more flexibility in pass coverage.

Look for the Patriots to implement a similar gameplan against the Steelers. Tight man-to-man coverage on Brown and Smith-Schuster, and a lot of disguises to create confusion. The reason why this worked against the Vikings is because of the defense's success on 1st and 2nd down. The question will be if they can execute as well on the road as they can at home. In Foxboro, the Patriots defense has looked stellar. On the road, they have struggled immensely. Perhaps a crucial game against a quality opponent will get them motivated to play to their potential.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots running game vs Steelers run defense

The Steelers are a 3-4 defense that relies heavily on their defensive line to stop the run, and they've done a good job of it this season. Their interior linebackers are also adept at stopping the inside running game. The Steelers rank 6th in the NFL in run defense, and they rank 8th in fewest yards per carry. This is one of the better run defenses in the league, but they are not without weakness. Their front is very big but also fairly slow and unathletic. They can be exploited with runs to the outside, especially when they are in their heavy personnel on defense.

The Patriots running game had an uncharacteristic performance last week in Miami. This has been a strength of the team in 2018, but they looked very weak against one of the worst run defenes in the league. The Patriots tend to underperform most seasons in Miami, so it should not have come as a total shock, but they will look to bounce back this week, and the Steelers, despite the ranking of their run defense, may be the perfect opponent. The Patriots have used a lot of jet motion with zone blocking on outside runs this season, and they've done so successfully. Against a defense that can struggle to defend outside runs, look for the Patriots to attack the edge with speed. The Steelers are very good at stopping the run up the middle, so Sony Michel may not be the featured back on Sunday, but the unit as a whole - Michel, White, Burkhead, and even Patterson - should have success to the outside.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots pass protection vs Steelers pass rush

The Steelers are 4th in pressure rate the NFL. They also rank #1 overall in sacks with 45. However, they are not doing so without the help of sending an extra rusher the majority of the time. The Steelers blitz on 43% of pass plays this season - more than any other team in the league. Unfortunately, their pass rush has seemingly disappeared during their 3 game losing streak. A lot of this is due to the fact that receivers are getting open too quickly against their secondary, but also because guys like Watt and Dupree seem to be slowing down in the final stretch of the regular season.

The Steelers still like to mix in some zone blitzes to overload the QB, as they have done in the past. The Patriots have always countered this successfully by having Brady set the protection accordingly pre-snap and then locating the right hot read post-snap. Lots of short passes with a ton of yards after catch.

New England's offensive line is one of the best in the league in pass protection. They come into Sunday night's game healthy. To combat the Steelers' blitzes, they will need to do what they've always done against Pittsburgh, and they will also need strong performances from Gronkowski in pass blocking and James White in blitz pick-up.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots passing game vs Steelers pass defense

The Steelers were determined to switch from their old zone-blitz scheme to more of a Cover 2 defense, with the intention of slowing down the Patriots' offense - something they have struggled with for two decades. It did not work for them last season, as they lost to the Patriots in Pittsburgh, and Brady had a good game, especially in the 4th quarter.

The Steelers employ a lot more man-to-man defense now, just as they did last season against New England. They play a lot of Cover 2 shell on the back end, with varying coverages underneath - sometimes it's man and sometimes it's zone. They like to mix their coverages on the back end, and they use a lot of Cover 3 as well. They also like to disguise their coverages by showing a single high look pre-snap, and then quickly retreating to a Cover 2.

Since the Steelers will be primarily in a Cover 2 shell, regardless of whether they play man or zone underneath, there should be big vertical holes that can be exploited by the Patriots. The Steelers secondary has performed very poorly recently, even getting beat handily up the seams while in Tampa 2. The Patriots will look to attack the Steelers down the seams with Edelman and Gronkowski, and take deep shots with Gordon downfield to open up the short passing game (slants, quick screens, passes to White and Burkhead out of the backfield.)

The Steelers realized last season that they needed to play more man coverage to be able to compete with New England. Unfortunately, they do not have the personnel to do it effectively, and playing more man coverage means leaving average corners in single coverage more often than in previous years. They will have their hands full with Edelman, Gordon, White, Burkhead, and Gronkowski.

Match-up edge: Patriots.