Week 16: Bills vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Bills running game
Back when the Patriots defeated the Bills in Buffalo in October, New England held them to just 46 rushing yards on 19 attempts for 2.4 yards per carry. At that point, the Bills had one of the very worst running games in the league, and many ways they still do, with one exception: Josh Allen. The rookie QB has shown elite ability to run the ball and has put together two 100+ rushing yards games, as well as a 99 rushing yard performance. Their RBs and OL still struggle for the most part to generate a traditional running game, however.
The Patriots, who are on a 2 game losing streak, have struggled immensely to stop the run in recent weeks. They have also had trouble historically with mobile QBs. Chris Ivory is questionable for Sunday's game, but LeSean McCoy will be starting. The Patriots should be able to handle McCoy and the Buffalo OL at home, but Josh Allen may pose some issues for them.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots pass rush vs Bills pass protection
The Buffalo Bills' OL is still plagued by communication issues and lack of situational awareness. They've been slowly improving, but this is still an OL that fails to consistently protect its young QB. Their weakest pass blockers have been LT Dion Dawkins, RG John Miller, and RT Jordan Mills.
The Patriots are still getting good pressure on the QB. Last week it resulted in a couple of turnovers, and the week prior they recorded 4 sacks. The Patriots should be able to keep Josh Allen under duress when they bring the heat, but they may be more conservative this week, given Allen's mobility.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Bills passing game
The Bills still own one of the league's worst passing attacks.
I covered Buffalo's new offensive coordinator this season in the week 8 breakdown - former Patriots' offensive assistant and tight ends coach Brian Daboll. With him, he brings the Erhardt-Perkins system that the Patriots have had so much success with. Daboll's intention is to use this concept driven system to be multiple and unpredictable, by using a few core concepts out of different formations to keep the defense guessing. The flexibility of the system allows the coaches to develop a specific gameplan each week for that specific opponent. Their offense has been very limited, however, because of their desire to simplify things for their rookie QB.
One of the core concepts they use a lot is the sails concept. This allows the offense to overload one side while stretching the defense vertically. The sails concept works very well against cover 3, which the Patriots play a lot of, however I expect them to be mostly in cover 1 this week.
The Bills also like to run the mesh concept, which has been problematic for the Patriots against certain teams. This is a simple crossing route, which can be difficult to defend in both man and zone coverage, if well executed
Another thing the Bills incorporate a lot of in their offense is the wheel route to a running back.
The Bills' offense does some things schematically that have caused issues for the Patriots' defense over the last year, but the problem is that their lack of overall talent, awareness, and execution has haunted them this season. This is the worst offense in the league. Their receivers have had trouble getting separation, and their quarterbacks have had issues with accuracy and making the proper reads.
In week 8, the Bills tried many different things on offense, including the wildcat. They had nothing to lose, and that is still the case, so they may look to try unorthodox and unpredictable things early in the game to get out to a quick lead. The Patriots will need to be prepared for whatever Buffalo throws at them early on.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Bills run defense
The Bills have one of the better run defenses in the league. In week 8, the Patriots were able to put up 76 yards on 25 carries for 3 yards per carry. That was without Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead in the lineup. The Bills have looked solid in this department since then.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have seen their running attack mysteriously decline since mid-season, even with both Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead in the lineup. The offensive line has been much weaker in run blocking, and so there have been fewer lanes for the RBs to run between.
Match-up edge: Bills.
Patriots pass protection vs Bills pass rush
The Buffalo Bills have been able to generate good pressure on the QB this season. They are tied for 8th in total sacks, and they are getting pressure from both the interior and exterior. DT Kyle Williams and DE Jerry Hughes will be the toughest challenge, but they've got other defensive linemen, as well as linebackers, who can put the heat on Brady. The most impressive part is that they've been able to generate pressure by only rushing fours guys, without needing to blitz much.
The Patriots' offensive line has been playing poorly as of late. What was once a strength is now an area of concern. Marcus Cannon, former All-Pro OL, was the weak link last week in Pittsburgh. Playing at home may alleviate some of these issues, but they will need to bring their best effort against a good pass rushing unit.
Match-up edge: Bills.
Patriots passing game vs Bills pass defense
The Bills are primarily a zone defense. They run a lot of cover 3 and cover 2, but they also come out in cover 4, and even sprinkle in some cover 1 once in a while. In their dominant win over the Vikings, they used a lot of cover 2 once they jumped out to a big lead. This week, I expect to see more cover 3, and possibly even more cover 1, as they will want to man up on the Patriots' receivers in certain situations. Sean McDermott like to disguise pressure as well as coverages. He loves to show man coverage when his defense is actually playing zone, and he also disguises his cover 3 by showing a two high safety look. This will be difficult for Buffalo to do against a QB like Tom Brady, whose experience and football IQ allows him to read and process all of this information quickly, and then make the appropriate pre-snap adjustments.
The Patriots' offense has just lost Josh Gordon. He has been suspended for having violated the terms of his reinstatement, and he posted a statement on social media saying that he is stepping away from football. This is a huge blow to the offense. The Patriots are now left with a WR corps of Julian Edelman (who has not looked like himself since his return from injury), Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Phillip Dorsett. It was this receiving corps, minus Julian Edelman, that struggled to get open early in the season. Rob Gronkowski has not looked like himself all season, and appears to still be battling injury. In the passing game, the two pass catching running backs - James White and Rex Burkhead - may have to be the team's MVPs going forward.
Tom Brady's play in the second half of the season has been intriguing. Physically, he still looks like Tom Brady. His accuracy and arm strength look like they always have. Unfortunately, he seems to be making more mental errors this season. For a player who's greatness is predicated on his superior knowledge of the game, his situational awareness, and high football IQ, this is very troubling. It could be that he realizes there are holes in this offense and that he is trying too hard to make things happen. He will need to be more surgical in his approach and he needs to cut down on the mental errors, because with the way this offense has been performing, and with the loss of Josh Gordon, the Patriots will need Tom Brady to elevate them if they are to succeed on Sunday, and in the long run, make another deep postseason run.
Match-up edge: Even.
