Week 17: Jets vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Jets running game
The Jets were a man-blocking offense until last season when they switched to a zone-blocking scheme. Their offensive line has struggled badly in the run blocking department. LG James Carpenter, their oldest offensive linemen, has had trouble adjusting to the new zone blocking scheme. That, in combination with his age catching up with him, have made him a liability. Their C Spencer Long and RG Brian Winters have had issues as well. Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell were both placed on IR and will not play on Sunday.
The Patriots' run defense has been very inconsistent in 2018. They've had stellar performances, but they've also had very subpar outings. However, that the Jets' running game has been lackluster, and they should be able to handle this running attack.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass rush vs Jets pass protection
In addition to struggling in run blocking, New York's offensive line has performed poorly in pass protection as well, especially the interior of their line. While they haven't given up many sacks (they have given up the 13th fewest) they do allow a significant amount of pressure up the middle. Carpenter, Long, and Winters should all be exploited by New England in pass protection.
The Patriots continue to be among the league leaders in generating pressure. They haven't accumulated many sacks, but they do make life hard for opposing quarterbacks, and that pressure has resulted in turnovers. Look for them to target the interior of the Jets' offensive line and get right into the opposing quarterback's face.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Jets passing game
The Jets hired Jeremy Bates as their new offensive coordinator last winter, and with him, he brought the West Coast offense. The Jets' offense this season is predicated on spreading teams horizontally and accumulating yards after the catch. They like to use a lot of pre-snap motion, and they love the sail concept. The sail concept give rookie QB Darnold an easy read, and it also floods the zone and creates a numbers disadvantage for the defense. Schematically, they could pose some issues for New England. Their pass catches are big and fast and have shown the ability to create separation, but their quarterback play and offensive line have held this offense back this season.
Sam Darnold has looked very good in recent weeks, including in last week's OT loss against Green Bay. He has displayed good decision making, a strong and accurate arm, and better timing and chemistry with his receivers than prior to his injury. He is also very capable of using his athleticism to escape pocket pressure.
The Patriots' secondary has played very well in 2018. JC Jackson has shown tremendous upside as the team's new #2 cornerback behind Stephon Gilmore. Back in week 12 the Jets successfully attacked New England's linebackers in the passing game, so they will need to be well prepared now that Darnold will be starting at QB. The linebackers will be targeted frequently, and the zone coverage of New England will be stressed, so their communication will need to be on point. Given the lack of a deep passing attack, and New York's ability to stress a zone defense, this could be a game that calls for a lot of Cover 1 from New England.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Jets run defense
The Jets' run defense has been average during the 2018 campaign. Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense is very fluid and flexible. While his base is a 3-4, he will often use other alignments, such as a 4-3, 3-3-5, and 2-4-5, and likes to use formations with 3 safeties on the field at once. The defensive linemen in his scheme are tasked with occupying blockers and space to allow the linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties to execute their assignments. The overall performance of the defensive front against the run hasn't been disastrous - it's been middle of the pack, as mentioned - but they have had disastrous individual games. The one that comes to mind was the week 10 game against Buffalo, when the Bills ran for 212 yards. The significance of this is that the Bills ran the ball in a similar fashion to how the Patriots have rushed this season at times. Buffalo employed a lot of outside zone scheme with a sweep. New England has used jet motion with zone blocking on outside runs on numerous occasions this season. This is something the Patriots should be able to exploit schematically.
When the Patriots have been healthy this season, they've had one of the better offensive lines in the league, especially on the interior, and their rushing attack has been very efficient. They rushed for 212 yards against the Jets on the road in the week 12 matchup, and they will be looking to duplicate that performance, as they are coming off a 273 rushing yard performance against the Bills.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Jets pass rush
Todd Bowles likes to use a lot of exotic overload blitzes to create free rushers. Safety Jamal Adams is a big part of their blitz packages - he almost acts like a linebacker. He will be someone that the Patriots must account for on every snap.
The Patriots' offensive line has been inconsistent in recent weeks, but they had a solid performance in week 12 against the Jets on the road. Brady was able to diagnose the pressure prior to the snap and adjusted the protection accordingly, and the OL, along with Gronkowski and James White helped in the pass blocking department.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Jets pass defense
The Jets use a heavy dose of man coverage, and sprinkle in some zone blitzes. They have anywhere from 4 ot 7 defensive backs out on the field at once, and they like to disguise their coverages. Their pass defense has been average this season, but if there is one weakness, it's their ability, or lack thereof, to cover the deep pass.
The Patriots' passing game has struggled for most of December, and last week they lost Josh Gordon. Tom Brady and the receivers have looked out of sync, and so we've seen a lot of dropped passes and incompletions, along with some crucial red zone miscues.
The Jets will have to account for James White and Rex Burkhead out of the backfield, who can be a dangerous weapon in the passing game. Darron Lee will likely see a lot of work against them when he is not covering Gronk. Avery Williamson will likely take that role when Lee is busy elsewhere. Both of these LBs are good in coverage, especially Lee.
Match-up edge: Even.
