Week 2: Patriots vs Jaguars

Patriots defensive line vs Jaguars offensive line

The big takeaway from New England's 27-20 victory over the Houston Texans in week 1 was the improvement in the front 7 - primarily the pass rush. Trey Flowers, Deatrich Wise Jr, Keionta Davis, and to a lesser extent, Adrian Clayborn, were all standouts in this department. Part of this was due to the Houston OL being comprised mostly of new faces, without much time to gel, but the relentless pass rush, without the need to blitz, was a very good sign for a unit that has struggled to pressure the QB in recent years. In the run game, the defense did not fare as well, but a lot of that had to do with situational football. The Patriots were deploying more resources to slowing down the Texans passing attack late in the game to prevent a comeback. By doing so, they were vulnerable to the run, and so the Texans were taking what the defense gave them. However, this chewed up a lot of clock, so the trade-off was well worth it in the end. Having said that, certain players were still getting beat in one on one battles, and so there is obviously still work to do when it comes to defending the run. More on that when I discuss the Patriots linebackers.

The Jaguars offensive line had a solid game against the Giants. It wasn't perfect, as they did take some untimely penalties that wiped out potentially big plays, but allowing 1 sack and only 4 QB hits is a solid performance. They were also superb in their run blocking assignments, allowing the team to rush for 137 yards.

The Patriots' depth and versatility of its passing rushers has the potential to disrupt any passing attack this season. They have been winning one on one match ups all training camp as well as during in week 1 vs Houston. When they have two edge rushers on the field at the same time, be it any two of Flowers, Wise, or Davis, they are tough to deal with. This should continue against a solid, but not spectacular, pass blocking unit in Jacksonville. Defending the run may be a different story. As previously mentioned, part of the reason New England gave up a lot of rushing yards was due to the lighter front used late in the game. But there were still examples of them losing one on one battles that they should not have lost. The Jaguars OL showed the ability to create wide lanes for their RBs to run through, and they should be able to replicate that on Sunday.

Match-up edge: Even

Patriots linebackers vs Jaguars running backs

Another takeaway from the week 1 game against Houston was the impressive performance of rookie LB Ja'Whaun Bentley. Bentley brought some much needed speed and coverage skills to the linebacker position. This is something the Patriots have lacked since trading Jamie Collins. Bentley looked especially good covering the flats, and showed tremendous speed and athleticism covering a wheel route. His coverage skills will allow both Van Noy and Hightower to play in their natural role - outside linebackers. Bentley saw a lot of snaps in week 1, however, when Elandon Roberts came on the field in his place, the drop off was immediately noticeable. Roberts looked slower, less athletic, and was being constantly beat one on one, which allowed the Texans to gain significant yards on the ground.

The Jaguars were the #1 rushing attack in the NFL last year, led by the RB duo of Leonard Fournette and TJ Yeldon. QB Blake Bortles contributed to that as well, posting over 300 yards on the ground. They utilize Yeldon in the passing game, but given the ability of the Patriots linebackers to choke off the passing lanes to the RBs in the opener, Yeldon won't have many opportunities to make plays in space. Most of their success could come on the ground, although Fournette suffered what appeared to be a hamstring injury in week 1 against the Giants. He is expected to play, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be. The Jacksonville OL opened some some big holes for their RBs in week 1, while the Patriots LBs still have some work to do when it comes to stopping the run. The Jaguars could have a big day again on the ground, depending on the health of their starting RB.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots secondary vs Jaguars receivers

In the breakdown prior to the Texans vs Patriots game, I said that the Patriots needed to mix coverages and run more cover 3 than cover 1 or cover 2 which they ran against the Osweiler led Texans back in 2016. Indeed, they used a lot of pattern match cover 3 coverage on Sunday. The secondary did a great job of communicating and passing off receivers in zone coverage. Even when a Houston receiver would gain a step on a Patriots defensive back, which happened infrequently, it always came late when the pass rush was already at Watson's doorstep. This is something that Bill Belichick always preaches - the pass rush and the coverage always have to work in tandem. The secondary did a great job of containing DeAndre Hopkins. They gave him a lot of attention and used a lot of bracket coverage on him, especially in the red zone. The Patriots also defended well against the bunch formation, which is something that caused them issues in 2017. Improvement in this area is another encouraging sign, especially this week, since the Jaguars love to utilize the bunch set.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars receivers had a lackluster day in week 1. Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook led the way with 54 and 51 yards respectively. The lone TD came on a reception from RB TJ Yeldon.

With the New England pass rush playing as well as it is, the secondary looking tight in coverage, and the fact that the Patriots won't have to divert a large portion of their resources to containing a single receiver like they did last week with Hopkins, they should be able to handle this receiving corps. Much like in last season's AFCCG, expect New England to deploy the cover 1 frequently, since Blake Bortles is not a threat to complete deep passes. This will allow New England to play tight bump and run coverage, it will allow the strong safety to play closer to the line of scrimmage and defend the run, and it will allow for more flexibility in the kind of blitzes that they can attack with.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots offensive line vs Jaguars defensive line

The Jaguars have an elite defensive line. They do it all. They are exceptional against the run, and they are relentless in the pass rush. Yannick Ngakoue, Marcell Dareus, Malik Jackson, and Calais Campbell make up this star studded unit. Calais Campbell was named the defensive player of the year by the Pro Football Writers Association in 2017. Surprisingly, the Patriots handled this unit fairly well, at least in terms of pass protection, in last season's meeting. The key will be to design plays to get the ball out of Brady's hand at lightning fast speed in order to evade the pass rush. Last week, the Patriots managed Marcus Cannon's snaps because it was his first game back from injury. Cannon played very well whenever he saw the field, handling elite edge rusher JJ Watt with relative ease. When Waddle came on the field to replace Cannon, however, it was a different story. Waddle was beat several times, and the Texans were thus able to generate more pressure on Brady in the later stages of the game. If Waddle sees the field for an extended period of time, this is a match up the Jaguars will be looking to exploit.

In the run game, the season ending ACL injury to Jeremy Hill is a big loss for the Patriots. Hill looked good as an early down power back. In his absence, they will look to rookie Sony Michel, as well as Rex Burkhead, to fill the void. Although there is some question as to whether or not Burkhead will be able to play. Don't expect a big game from James White on the ground against that big and physically imposing defensive line. The Giants were able to have a good game on the ground against the Jaguars in week 1, so the Patriots may test that run defense early.

Match-up edge: Jaguars.

Patriots running backs vs Jaguars linebackers

The Jaguars have a great deal of speed and athleticism at linebacker. Telvin Smith and Myles Jack are both terrific in pass coverage, and Myles Jack in particular has a very high football IQ. His ability to read and diagnose a play sets him apart from most players at his position, and he keeps getting better. In last season's meeting, the Patriots had moderate success passing to their RBs, with a combined 10 catches for 54 yards between Lewis and White. Lewis is no longer a member of the team, but Burkhead (who was coming off of injury and did not see much action in the 2017 AFCCG vs Jacksonville) and White are still a threat out of the backfield. This will be one of the most interesting match ups of the game, as you have two very talented pass catching RBs up against a speedy and athletic LB corps who can cover. This is a match up in which each team will be able to make plays. The key will be who wins on 3rd down.

What the Jacksonville LB corps have in coverage skills, they lack in their ability to defend the run. Their ability to play at such a high speed is due in large part to their size, or lack thereof, which is a detriment when it comes to defending the run. If you can get past their defensive line, the middle of their defense can be exploited with the ground attack.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots receivers vs Jaguars secondary

On paper, the Jaguars secondary should win this match up decisively. However, schematically, it may not be as one sided as it looks at first glance. The Patriots lost Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola to free agency, and Julian Edelman to suspension for 4 games. They do still have the most dominant TE in the game, who often lines up at WR, but the WR corps consists mainly of Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Far from an intimidating group. Phillip Dorsett did have a very good game last week, but that came against a much less talented secondary than the one he will be facing this week. One interesting observation from the week 1 game between the Jaguars and the Giants, though, was the success the Giants had when using rub routes. Rub routes are useful when playing against tight man coverage, because two receivers will run their defenders into combined traffic, which will create separation for both of them. This is a legal play, as long as neither receiver hits a defender, otherwise it's an illegal pick and will result in a penalty. The Jaguars are expected to play tight man coverage on Sunday, so the fact that the Patriots are so adept at using rub routes to create separation bodes well for them. It has been a staple of their offense for years. The Jaguars should be able to contain the Patriots' wide receivers for the most part, but the susceptibility of their secondary against rub routes could result in some big plays at crucial moments. Add to that the fact that Rob Gronkowski has the ability to make plays even when faced with bracket coverage, and the Patriots could still have a solid passing game on Sunday, despite the seemingly one sided match up in this area on paper.

Match-up edge: Jaguars.