Week 3: Patriots vs Lions

Patriots run defense vs Lions running game

It's difficult to evaluate the Lions' running game over the first two weeks of the season, because in both games they fell behind by a large amount and were forced to abandon the run. They have averaged only 16 carries in their first two games against the Jets and the 49ers. It is clear, however, that despite his limited number of carries, rookie running back Kerryon Johnson is the stand out of the Lions' RB unit. The rookie has shown great awareness and vision, and is currently averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He is an elusive back who has made the most of the small holes made available to him by the Lions' offensive line. Former Patriot LeGarrette Blount had a disappointing debut for the Lions in their opener. He had -3 yards before he left the game with a shoulder injury, but he did play better against the 49ers, putting up 38 yards on 8 carries.

The Lions' offensive line has not looked good in their run blocking assignments in their first couple of games. Center Graham Glasgow was handled easily by Steve McLendon in the opener against the Jets. The Patriots will need Malcom Brown and/or Danny Shelton to step up and be the big space eaters this weekend. If they can win their match up against Glasgow whenever they're on the field, that will greatly impede the Lions' rushing attack. Lawrence Guy will need to continue his proficiency in stopping the run.

At the linebacker position, Hightower - who is the team's best run stopping LB - is clearly still not operating at 100%. Speed has never been a strong attribute for him, but he definitely doesn't look like he did prior to his injury. He will need more time to get into game shape, but until that happens, the run defense could continue to struggle.

Match-up edge: Even

Patriots pass rush vs Lions pass protection

While the Patriots' pass rush looked much improved in week 1 against the Texans, it struggled immensely in week 2 against the Jaguars. The lack of interior pressure is what hurt them most, as Blake Bortles was able to step up in the pocket and drive the ball downfield at will. A lot of this is correctable, however. The injury to Trey Flowers, who is arguably New England's best defender, could be devastating, but better execution should lead to more success this week, against an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection.

There were many instances against the Jaguars where the Patriots front 7 would get close to Bortles, but due to poor execution, allowed the play to continue. Ja'Whaun Bentley had Bortles dead to rights, but whiffed. Adrian Clayborn was responsible for over-pursuing on numerous occasions, which is something you cannot do against a mobile QB.

The positive for the Patriots is that they will be facing a significantly inferior offensive line than they did last week. The Lions have been sub par in pass protection, with rookie guard Frank Ragnow being the weak link. Ragnow has struggled against stunts, and his awareness and timing have looked off. The Patriots should be able to win the match up against Ragnow regardless of who they line up against him, and this should allow their pass rush to look closer to the way it looked in week 1. It also doesn't help the Lions that Matthew Stafford, throughout his career, has been known to hold on to the ball for far too long.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots pass defense vs Lions passing game

The pass defense, like all other areas of the defense, looked over-matched last week. The Jaguars coaching staff designed a great gameplan that utilized concepts the Patriots have struggled with since last season. Much like the Eagles did in SB LII, the Jaguars would flood zones with multiple receivers to create 2-on-1 situations, rub routes, and shallow crossing routes. This is something that the Chiefs, the Eagles, and now the Jaguars have exploited in the Patriots pass defense, and could be a blueprint on how to attack this defense going forward if they do not adjust. Losing Patrick Chung to concussion doesn't help either, and so far there is no word on when he will return to action.

The Jaguars had success utilizing their speedy WRs horizontally, and attacking New England's LBs in space with Grant and Yeldon - two very talented pass catching RBs. The Detroit Lions have a couple of RBs who are more than capable of catching passes out of the backfield in Theo Riddick and rookie Kerryon Johnson. Look for them to try to create mismatches in space against New England's LBs.

Additionally, the Lions have two wide receivers who could pose some issues for New England. Golden Tate is a great open field runner and is known for his ability to accumulate a ton of yards after catch. He can slice a defense horizontally on the same kind of shallow crossing routes that have burned the Patriots. New England will need to improve their tackling from week 2, otherwise Tate could turn short passes into large gains. WR Kenny Golladay will be another player to watch. Golladay has had an impressive two weeks to start the season, amassing 203 yards on 13 receptions and 1 TD. He has shown great route running, the ability to successfully work the middle of the field, and like Tate, has been elusive and creating yards after catch. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots approach their defensive assignments in the secondary. When the other team has multiple receiving threats, Belichick likes to use his best corner on the opponent's #2 WR, and then double the #1 receiver with his second best corner and a safety. If he uses that same approach, we should see Gilmore on Tate, with Rowe covering Golladay with some safety help. The Patriots played a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3 last week, and Rowe was on an island. The Jaguars targeted him repeatedly when he was on the field, and they had a lot of success. Jason McCourty did not look any better. Whichever receiver Rowe is assigned to, he will need safety help over the top.

One thing to note is Matthew Stafford has struggled with his deep passes this season. Against both the Jets and the 49ers, Stafford missed his open man even though he was not under duress. He has always been known for having a strong arm, and his downfield accuracy was near the top of the league last season, but he seems to be struggling in that department in 2018.

Match-up edge: Lions.

Patriots running game vs Lions run defense

Former New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia took the head coaching job in Detroit over the off-season. With him, he brought new gap assignments and techniques to the defensive front of the Lions, and it is clear that they're still trying to adjust to the changes. Detroit's run defense has been porous in the first two weeks of the season. The Jets had success pulling their guards and tight ends and running a lot of stretch zone. They had trouble setting the edge, and were constantly beat by runs to the outside. The 49ers had success running to the outside as well, and also in between the tackles. Over the course of the first 2 weeks, the Lions are dead last against the run.

The Patriots lost their power back Jeremy Hill for the season in week 1, but rookie Sony Michel showed some promise against arguably the best defense in the league last week. Despite only averaging 3.4 yards per carry (again, this was against what many consider to be the best defense in the league) he showed an ability to run hard between the tackles and to finish a play. He also has the ability to bounce the ball to the outside. Against a Lions defense that struggles against inside runs as well as on the edges, Michel should have a big game. Rex Burkhead and James White should have considerable contributions as well.

Match-up edge: Patriots.

Patriots pass protection vs Lions pass rush

The Lions' pass rush has been nothing to speak of all off-season and in the 1st week of the season, but came alive last week against the 49ers when they recorded 6 sacks, even without DE Ziggy Ansah. It's still unclear whether or not Ansah will play on Sunday vs the Patriots. The Lions got to Jimmy Garoppolo in about 3 seconds or longer, so pass coverage had a lot to do with those sacks. Tom Brady generally gets the ball out much quicker than that, and having Josh Gordon at his disposal should help in that regard. More to come on that later. The Patriots offensive line played very well in pass protection for the most part in week 1 against a better front 7 than the one they will be facing on Sunday. Losing Cannon did hurt, however, as JJ Watt took advantage of his replacement (Waddle) towards the end of the game. The Jaguars also put a significant amount of pressure on Brady in week 2. Marcus Cannon was limited in practice on Wednesday. If he can play, the offensive line should be able to handle the front 7 fairly easily. If Waddle starts in his place for a second straight week, the Patriots should still fare well for the most part, but he is bound to get beat at some point, and likely more than once.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots passing game vs Lions pass defense

In the 3rd quarter of Detroit's week 2 game against the 49ers, All-Pro cornerback Darius Slay suffered a concussion. He missed the rest of the game and has still not cleared concussion protocol. It doesn't look like he will play on Sunday. This is a big loss for the Lions, as Slay is one of the best cornerbacks in the league.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have acquired Josh Gordon from Cleveland. Josh Gordon has been battling substance abuse off the field in recent years. He has not played a full season since 2013, when he led the league in receiving yards with the likes of Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden throwing him the ball. Gordon has all of the talent in the world, and if he can keep his head on straight, he could end up being a dangerous weapon for New England this season. Gordon has the ability to create separation (something the Patriots receiving corps has struggled with this season) and attack at all levels of the field. His mere presence on the field will create more room for the other receivers, because defenses will have to account for his speed and his ability to get open deep.

The 49ers used a lot of creativity to attack the Lions' pass defense. They lined FB Kyle Juszczyk all over the field and used pre-snap motion to create mis-matches. They did the same thing with their RBs and even with WR Dante Pettis, as they moved him into the backfield. The Patriots like to do some of the same things. They can line up guys like Burkhead and White in the backfield or split them out wide. They like to line up wide receivers in the backfield, too. Cordarrelle Patterson could be a prime candidate for this. They like to use pre-snap motion to create mis-matches - like isolating a RB on a LB.

The Lions don't have the personnel to do what the Jaguars defense were able to do to the Patriots last week. Their secondary took a big hit with the loss of Slay, their LBs are not as fast and athletic as Jacksonville's, and their defensive line is not as talented or deep. The Patriots should be able to target Lawson and Tabor deep with Gordon and Dorsett, and with Hogan in the slot. Burkhead and White have favorable match ups against their LBs, and Sony Michel is more than capable in the passing game as well. The Lions also don't have the talent to shut down Gronk the way the Jaguars did so brilliantly in week 2. The Jaguars were able to do so mostly with single coverage. Several defenders all took their turn to guard Gronkowski - from LBs Myles Jack and Telvin Smith, to S Barry Church, to CB Jalen Ramsey. But mostly it was S Tashaun Gipson. All incredibly talented and athletic players. The Jaguars ran their usual coverages for the most part, but did throw a wrinkle in there at times. On 3rd downs, they played LB Myles Jack at safety, and had him drop into a deep zone in the middle of the field. Had Josh Gordon been available to the Patriots in that game, we would not have seen such a bold strategy, and if he can remain available to the team for the remainder of the season, we likely won't see it again. Rob Gronkowski should have a bounce back game against this struggling Lions defense.

Match-up edge: Patriots.