Week 5: Colts vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Colts running game
The Colts come into New England with one of the least impressive running attacks in the league. Their starting RB, Marlon Mack, continues to be hampered by a lingering hamstring injury, and has only played in one game this season. Rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines will be looking to share the load again, should Mack not be able to suit up on Thursday. They only have 190 yards combined in 4 games. The Colts are also dealing with injuries to their offensive line, as tackles Anthony Castonzo and Joe Haeg have missed time.
The Patriots, meanwhile, got a huge boost to their defensive line, as their best run defender, Trey Flowers, returned to action against Miami. The Patriots held Miami to just 56 total rushing yards and 3.1 yards per carry. Hightower looked much better against the Dolphins, and put together his best performance of the season. The run defense has played well for the most part at home, barring the later stages of the week 1 game against Houston, when they went with a lighter front in order to defend the passing game. In week 4 against Miami, the execution was much better, the defensive linemen were getting off their blocks much quicker, and they were able to penetrate Miami's OL.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass rush vs Colts pass protection
The aforementioned injuries to Castonzo and Haeg will affect the Colts' pass protection as well. The Colts revamped their OL during the off-season, and they've looked better than in recent years. On Sunday, they allowed just 2 sacks and gave Luck plenty of time. However, going on the road without their two starting tackles will present a bigger challenge, as the crowd noise will make it more difficult to communicate and change blocking assignments pre-snap.
Edge rusher Trey Flowers could have a big game against Denzelle Good, who will be Joe Haeg's replacement, but what was impressive against Miami is the team effort in rushing the passer. Adrian Clayborn, Kyle Van Noy, and Adam Butler all looked good, and worked well together on Butler's sack. Butler is the team's best interior pass rusher, and he will be key in Thursday's game, as the Patriots will be looking to get in Andrew Luck's face and prevent him from stepping up into the pocket to find the open man.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Colts passing game
After a couple of tough weeks on the road against Jacksonville and Detroit, the Patriots' pass defense played nearly a perfect game against Miami, holding Ryan Tannehill to just 100 passing yards and 0 touchdowns. It was a bit bizarre, however, to see Miami refuse to attack New England horizontally with their speed, as the previous two opponents did with much success. Instead, they tried to vertically stretch the New England defense and to attack their secondary. Additionally, they only ran the RPO on 5 plays.
The Indianapolis Colts are coached by Frank Reich, who was the Eagles offensive coordinator last season. Given that he was the one who devised the offensive gameplan that was responsible for putting up 41 points in the Super Bowl LII win against New England, it seems reasonable to assume that he will use a similar gameplan - that is, a lot of RPO, a lot of shallow crossing routes in front of the New England linebackers, a lot of passes to RB Nyheim Hines, who is a very good pass catcher out of the backfield. Outside of Hines, however, the Colts do not have the skill players to implement this gameplan successfully. T.Y. Hilton is still injured, and even if he plays, it remains to be seen how effective he will be. TE Jack Doyle has been battling injury as well, and has missed the last two games. This is a very beat up offensive unit that lacks overall talent at the moment, and it doesn't appear that they have the weapons to match up favorably against the Patriots.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Colts run defense
The Colts rank middle of the pack in terms of run defense, which is an improvement from recent years, but they've been inconsistent throughout the first 4 games. They've had two good games against the run when they played the Redskins and the Texans, and two bad games against the Bengals and the Eagles. However, they are coming off a long overtime game and have to travel on a short week. Their defense played in excess of 80 snaps, so fatigue may set in. Darius Leonard was seen in a walking boot after the Houston game. His absence would be a big loss, as he is arguably their best defender, especially against the run.
The Patriots' running game had a great showing against Miami. Rookie RB Sony Michel, in only his 3rd game in the NFL, rushed for over 100 yards. But the big takeaway was the improvement of the offensive line in the run blocking department. The OL created wide lanes for Sony Michel and James White, both of whom found the end zone. FB James Develin had a great run blocking game as well.
In recent years, the Patriots had great success playing smash mouth football against the Colts and running at them mercilessly. They would often bring in an extra offensive linemen and run for 5-6 yards per play, gashing them repeatedly on the ground. Coming off a long overtime game and having to travel on a short week could be an issue for that Indy run defense, especially with the injury to Leonard. Look for New England to use their big formation and to test that run defense early.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Colts pass rush
Through the first 4 weeks, the Colts are ranked #2 in the league in sacks. They have recorded 17 sacks in 4 games. DE Margus Hunt and LB Darius Leonard each lead the team with 4 sacks, former Patriot DE Jabaal Sheard, DE Denico Autry, DE Kemoko Turay, DE Jihad Ward, each have 2, and LB Anthony Walker has 1. So they have numerous players at different positions that can bring pressure.
The Patriots' offensive line continues to be inconsistent in pass protection. They will look good for a large portion of the game, but they continue to have breakdowns at certain points. Against a team that has shown the ability to get after the QB like Indy has, look for them to devise a gameplan to get the ball out of Brady's hand quickly - a lot of short crossers to the WRs, dump offs to the RBs - in order to negate Indy's pass rush.
Match-up edge: Colts.
Patriots passing game vs Colts pass defense
To continue with the story of Indianapolis injuries, CB Kenny Moore went down with a concussion in week 4. This is another big injury for them, as he had a very promising start to the season. Even with him in the lineup, the Colts were in the bottom half when it comes to pass defense.
On the other hand, the Patriots will be getting WR Julian Edelman back this week. Edelman has been Brady's favorite target since 2013. He knows every route in the route tree and has Brady's full confidence - which is something Brady has lacked in his receiving corps so far this season. Edelman's quick cuts can burn even the most elite corners on those short routes, but he can attack at all levels, including on the intermediate and deep routes. Josh Gordon now has a game under his belt in the Patriots' system, and he looked good in his limited role. He only played 18 snaps, but made a nice play on a slant route that went 19 yards. He was also an efficient blocker on runs, including James Whites' TD. It looks like he is well on his way to mastering the playbook, and he is buying into the system so far. Most importantly, his presence alone should be beneficial to the other receivers, as he will draw a great deal of attention from opposing defensive backs.
The Colts like to play a lot of two-high safeties, and occasionally they will give the offense some single high looks. Against Cover 2, it's beneficial to have receivers who can burn a defense up the seams. This is where having Gronkowski and Edelman back in the slot on the field at the same time will be of great benefit, especially against Indy's depleted defense. With Leonard's injury, the lack of speed at LB could give way to another big day for James White in the passing game. The Patriots will have too many weapons on offense for the Colts to handle.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
