Week 6: Chiefs vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Chiefs running game
The Patriots come into Sunday night's showdown against the undefeated Chiefs with a run defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league. They've been able to string together good performances against the run in back to back weeks, but the Dolphins and Colts haven't had a strong rushing attack this season. The Chiefs rank just outside of the top 10 in rushing yards per game, with an average of 115.6 yards. Not groundbreaking numbers by any means, but it's the way that the Chiefs run the ball that could cause issues for New England.
The Chiefs run a zone blocking scheme and like to stretch defenses horizontally with misdirection and jet motion. They like to use their speed to get to the edge before the defense. Bill Belichick preaches edge setting, and the Patriots, especially the LBs, will need to have perfect communication, eye discipline, and make sure to stay on their keys when reading the play. The Patriots have been susceptible to plays that stretch the defense horizontally, due to their lack of speed at the LB position, so they will have their hands full with this fast Kansas City offense. New England played fairly well against an offense that does some of the same things last week against the Colts, but the Chiefs are vastly more talented across the board.
Match-up edge: Chiefs.
Patriots pass rush vs Chiefs pass protection
The Chiefs' offensive line has done a solid job of protecting rookie Patrick Mahomes throughout the first 5 games. However, RT Laurent Duvernay-Tardif suffered an injury against the Jaguars last week and will be replaced by Jordan Devey. Devey is a former Patriot who struggled immensely. His presence on the field should have Trey Flowers and Adam Butler opportunities to create some interior pressure. The Patriots will likely focus more on containing Mahomes in the pocket instead of getting consistent pressure on him, but the injury to their starting RT will at least give them a weakness to attack. Any pressure they bring will be dependent on the situation, and it will be disguised.
Match-up edge: Chiefs.
Patriots pass defense vs Chiefs passing game
The Patriots' defense has been praised for their marked improvement over the last couple of weeks, but the real test will come on Sunday night. Ever since the 2014 meeting between the two squads in week 4, the Chiefs have provided a blueprint on how to successfully attack the New England defense. Very few teams have the personnel to implement this blueprint, and even those that did, have not always been successful. The Chiefs have the speed and talent to cause major issues for the Patriots. Teams like the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, the Jaguars in week 2 of this season, and even the Lions in week 3, have all followed the Chiefs' blueprint with success. Since 2014, the Chiefs are 2-1 against New England, and have scored 41 and 42 points in their wins. The Colts, coached by the former Eagles offensive coordinator, who devised the gameplan for SB LII, run a similar offense. The Patriots' defense performed well against them, but they do not have the level of talent that the Chiefs possess.
As noted previously, the Chiefs like to stretch opposing defenses horizontally with misdirection plays and jet motion. Once they get you to honor these plays early in the game, they will attack you vertically with extremely fast WRs like Hill and Watkins. All of those misdirection and jet motion plays are designed to open up the middle of the field, as the defense is forced to go horizontally.
The Chiefs will also be looking to isolate RB Kareem Hunt on a LB in the passing game on rail and wheel routes. Hunt's speed will create enormous an mis-match against any New England LB.
Kansas City uses the RPO (run-pass option) fairly heavily in their offense, and so they have made it easier for Mahomes to make plays and to react to what the defense is doing. One way to defend against the RPO is to change and disguise the front from play to play, and to make it harder for Mahomes to read the intention of the defense. If the Patriots show him a front with 7 defenders in the box, but he only has 6 guys blocking, the Patriots would essentially be manipulating him to pass instead of run. The Patriots can also disguise the front so that he has a tougher time deciding which defenders are in the box, and therefore determining how many there are. Changing fronts can also complicate his decision making after the snap, because he wouldn't be sure whether he's supposed to read the DE or the LB, or who is responsible for the pass or the run. Of course, the RPO can cause confusion for the defense as well, as they need to make very quick decisions about whether they should drop into coverage or defend the run.
Look for the Chiefs to deploy the mesh concept, wherein they will use a lot of short crossing routes with a natural rub in the middle of the field to get receivers open. Expect to see a lot of passing out of bunch sets, and a steady dose of play-action pass, too. The Patriots have struggled against all of this for a while now, and the speed of the Chiefs on offense has the potential to wreak havoc.
Match-up edge: Chiefs.
Patriots running game vs Chiefs run defense
The Chiefs currently rank dead last in the NFL in terms of rushing yards per carry. They've been extremely vulnerable against the run for a couple of years now, and this continues to be a glaring weakness for them.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have looked very good on the ground. Run blocking has been well above average, especially at home, and rookie Sony Michel looks better with each passing week. One way to slow down a highly explosive offense like Kansas City's is to keep the ball out of their hands, so Michel will be asked upon to have another big game on Sunday, as the Patriots will no doubt want to control the clock and limit Kansas City's time of possession. He should be able to put up another big performance against a weak run defense.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Chiefs pass rush
The Chiefs are tied for 6th in the NFL with 15 sacks. That looks like a good number on the surface, but they haven't been able to consistently pressure the opposing QB. The injury to Justin Houston, who is doubtful to play on Sunday, won't help in that regard.
The Patriots' offensive line has played very well at home in pass protection. Whether Houston plays or not, expect the Patriots to devise a gameplan to get the ball out of Brady's hands quickly. The offensive line should hold up well given Brady's quick release.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots passing game vs Chiefs pass defense
Just as the Chiefs' defense has struggled against the run, they've also struggled against the pass. The loss of Eric Berry to injury has hurt their secondary considerably. Their inability to deal with TEs and RBs in the passing game has been their biggest weakness so far this season. Look for New England throw the ball to James White and Sony Michel quite regularly, and to use Gronk down the seam.
The Chiefs play a mix of zone and man coverage, with their go to coverage shells being Cover 1 and Cover 3. This is something they have in common with the Patriots, as they predominantly deploy these same cover shells. The Patriots are very adept at beating such coverages - they've done so to many teams in the past, and teams like the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Jaguars have also given them a taste of their own medicine against their own defense. Against cover 1, sideline breaking routes and mesh concepts involving rub routes, as well as slants, are usually what the Patriots use to defeat the coverage. Against cover 3, they will use curl routes to put pressure on the outside linebacker, as the cornerbacks evacuate the area. Given Kansas City's weakness at LB, the Patriots should have a lot of success on curl routes against this cover 3.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
