Week 7: Patriots vs Bears

Patriots run defense vs Bears running game

The Patriots are coming off of a big win against the undefeated Chiefs on Sunday night. The Chiefs' offense has caused many issues for New England in recent years, and some of those issues reared their head again in the 2nd half, despite the win. The Chicago Bears run a very similar offense to the Chiefs, and they do a lot of the same things schematically. This is now 3 games in a row, going back to the Colts game, where the Patriots have played against the same offensive scheme. However, the Bears' personnel, while talented, is not quite on the level of Kansas City's.

The Bears run a zone blocking scheme and like to stretch defenses horizontally with misdirection and jet motion, just like the Chiefs. They also use their speed to get to the edge before the defense. Once again, the Patriots will need to set the edge, they will need to have perfect communication, eye discipline, and make sure to stay on their keys when reading the play. Even though the Patriots did concede the run most of the time, in order to defend the pass, their lack of speed of on defense was on display once again on Sunday, as Kareem Hunt was able to gain 8 yards per carry. However, expect to see a lot less dime packages against the Bears, as more resources will be deployed to stop the running game.

The Bears offensive line has been inconsistent this season. They've shown the ability to get to the second level with ease in some games, especially the interior OL, but in other games have struggled to get off the ball. The zone blocking scheme that the Bears run has potential to be problematic for New England if the Bears' OL performs up to their potential, as the Patriots continue to have issues defeating blocks on the move.

Jordan Howard is their power back who they utilize up the middle, while Tarik Cohen can attack east-west with his speed, dynamism, and slipperiness. Neither RB is a Kareem Hunt level talent, but they do complement one another well.

Finally, QB Mitchell Trubisky deserves a mention. Trubisky has had a good season as a passer, but has also put up 164 yards on the ground, which means he is only 6 yards shy of Cohen's season rushing total. The Patriots will need to focus on keeping him in the pocket, otherwise he could be difficult to handle once he breaks containment.

Match-up edge: Bears.

Patriots pass rush vs Bears pass protection

Due to the aforementioned ability of QB Mitchell Trubisky to amass significant yardage with his feet, the Patriots main focus will be to contain him inside the pocket. This will especially be the case for the defensive ends. However, as we saw against the Chiefs, even against a mobile QB, the Patriots have been better at getting pressure when needed than they have historically. Against Mahomes they noticed on film that he struggled with setting protection and identifying blitzes, so they disguised, and at times bluffed, their blitzes very effectively. They didn't sack Mahomes, but the pressure resulted in several missed throws. Trubisky, although not a rookie, is still a fairly young and inexperienced QB, who has struggled with his reads. Perhaps New England can have similar success disguising pressure against the Bears.

The challenge for New England's pass rush will be to perform on the road as they have at home. Through 4 home games in 2018, the pass rush has looked very good. In their two road games - both losses - they struggled to make the QB uncomfortable in the pocket. The Bears offensive line has also been well above average this season.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots pass defense vs Bears passing game

Matt Nagy, who was hired as the Bears' head coach in January of this year, is a disciple of Andy Reid. He spent 10 years under Reid, and as mentioned previously, brought virtually the same offensive scheme with him to Chicago. In the passing game, this means a West Coast offense with many short, quick passes to WRs to get them in space and allow them to make plays, a lot of slants and drag routes, and RBs lining up as WRs. The Bears like to create mismatches with their WRs and RBs as well. Additionally, Nagy was a big fan of the RPO (run-pass option) when he was a signal caller in Kansas City last season, and the Bears have been using it fairly effectively this season.

Expect the Bears to use the RPO on 10-20% of their offensive snaps, a lot of crossing routes and slants aimed at New England's LBs, a lot of zone flooding concepts, and plenty of bootlegs and roll-outs with Trubisky. They will also use Tarik Cohen heavily in the passing game. Cohen is an incredibly fast back who runs routes as well as a WR, and that poses a match up night mare for any team. It's hard to know whether to treat him as a RB or as a WR. The Patriots will likely play a lot of zone on Sunday, so they will probably treat him as a RB and line up a CB on him as if he was split out wide, and if he moves into the slot, they can put Jonathan Jones on him. Another player that will present match up issues is Trey Burton. The Bears like to put Burton in the backfield along Cohen at times. So does the defense treat him as a tight end or as a fullback? This also makes it difficult to determine their personnel grouping - is it 20 personnel, or is it 11 personnel? Nagy likes to fake the lead block and release Burton down the seam from the backfield off of the play-action pass.

Speedy WR Taylor Gabriel has been having a very good season and is Chicago's leading receiver. Allen Robinson has looked good as well. Both present different challenges. Taylor Gabriel's speed is a nightmare for opposing defense in the open field. Allen Robinson's terrific route running and size make him a big red zone threat.

The Chicago Bears' offense has not been lighting the world on fire, but they present several issues schematically and personnel wise for New England. They've won consecutive games against very similar offenses, but that was in the confines of Gillette Stadium, and they still surrendered an average of 32 points. They will need great preparation and execution on Sunday against an offense that is more than capable of taking advantage of their weaknesses.

Match-up edge: Bears.

Patriots running game vs Bears run defense

The Patriots, and Sony Michel in particular, are coming off yet another impressive showing in the running game. Michel showed some nice burst and vision, allowing him to record another 100+ yard game. Kansas City's run defense is the worse in the league, however, so the strong showing was expected. The previous two opponents - Indianapolis and Miami - may not rank highly in terms of average total rushing yards per game allowed, but they give up only 4 and 3.7 yards per carry, respectively, which puts them top 10 in that category. Michel averaged over 100 yards per game against both teams.

Michel hasn't been doing it all by himself, as the offensive line has played extremely well in recent weeks. The OL has been moving opposing fronts and getting to the second level fairly consistently. Marcus Cannon left the game with a concussion, so if he can't go, or if he is not 100%, this could have an adverse effect on the OL.

Something that the Bears run defense struggled with was stopping the run when Miami had a fullback out on the field. Miami used TE Nick O’Leary as a FB on certain plays, and he was able to block very effectively for Gore and Drake. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots try lining up Gronk at FB from time to time, which he has done in the past. The Patriots like using their actual FB James Develin to block in the running game as well, and he has been opening up holes for Michel.

On the opposing side, the Bears run defense has been stout this season, with the exception of their last game against Miami. That game could be chalked up to an aberration, however, since it was played in high heat, and the Bears looked sloppy, especially when it came to their tackling. The Bears have been one of the better tackling teams all season, so it's highly unlikely that they will duplicate that poor performance. They are coming off of an overtime game in which their defense played a lot of snaps, so that could potentially play a factor.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots pass protection vs Bears pass rush

The Chicago Bears are tied for 5th in the NFL with 18 sacks. They can bring pressure from anywhere. Khalil Mack is their leader with 5 sacks, but they've gotten contributions from LB Danny Trevathan, former Patriot DT Akiem Hicks, LB Roquan Smith, and DE Roy Robertson-Harris, among others. What the Dolphins did to slow down their pass rush last Sunday was to double team Mack and chip him at the line using a TE, RB, or WR on numerous snaps, and then beat the other pass rushers one on one. Miami also used a lot of quick passes to get the ball out of the hands of their QB, before the pass rush could get there. The heat certainly played a role in that, and it will help the Bears to be back home in cooler temperatures.

The Patriots' OL has been playing well, in run blocking as mentioned earlier, as well as in pass protection. All of the starters have been playing exceptional, however, Marcus Cannon continues to be injury prone. Against the Chiefs, he left the game with concussion and it is uncertain whether or not he will play against the Bears. When LaAdrian Waddle replaced him, the opposing pass rushers had a lot more success targeting him, as has been the case for most of the season. The good news is that Waddle has experience matching up against Mack. Last year in the Patriots' 33-8 victory over the Raiders, Waddle was blocking Mack effectively, and mostly in one on one situations. If Waddle gets the start, having the same kind of performance he had last year against Mack would go a long way in slowing down the Bears' pass rush. Also look for the Patriots to use a lot of quick passes to neutralize the pass rush like Miami did.

Match-up edge: Even.

Patriots passing game vs Bears pass defense

The Bears are primarily a cover 1 and cover 3 defense, but they also run a lot of cover 6, too. A cover 6 is a mix of cover 2 and cover 4, where on one side of the field a safety is responsible for the deep half, and on the other side a cornerback and a safety are each responsible for a deep quarter. Teams play this coverage when they want help over the top for the weak side corner.

The Patriots have had a lot of success against cover 1 and cover 3, including Sunday's game against the Chiefs, and I wrote last week how they have done so. Cover 6 brings with it the same advantages of cover 2 and cover 4, but also has the same disadvantages. On the cover 4 side, the underneath area can be exploited with quick slants and curl/flat, while on the cover 2 side, the deep middle area of the field will be a soft spot in the coverage and can be attacked with seam routes.

New England loves to attack the middle of the defense with quick and shifty guys like Edelman and White, but Chicago's LBs are very fast and good in coverage. Nevertheless, there are still ways for the Patriots to create mismatches. The Bears would definitely not want one of those LBs covering Edelman, so that would leave a LB to cover Gronk, which would be a match up that Brady would take all day. It will be hard for them to double Gronk using a safety, as the Lions did, because they will have to account for Gordon, who is more than capable of beating them deep.

Match-up edge: Patriots.