Week 8: Patriots vs Bills
Patriots run defense vs Bills running game
The Buffalo Bills have one of the worst running games in the league. Not only do they rank in the bottom third in yards per carry and in the bottom half in rushing yards per game, but the production from their RBs is even worse than these rankings suggest, since a large portion of their running attack comes from QB Josh Allen. To add to their problems, LeSean McCoy was placed in concussion protocol following last week's game, and is also rumored to be on the trading block. As of now, it's questionable whether he can play at all, or how much he can even contribute if he does.
The biggest culprit is the lack of production from the offensive line. They've failed to consistently create holes for their running backs. They are currently ranked near the bottom of the league by Pro Football Focus in terms of run blocking.
The Patriots, on the other hand, handled Chicago's RBs very well, despite some of the schematic and match up issues presented by the Bears. Their RBs only had 53 total rushing yards on 18 carries. However, they gave up 81 yards and a TD to QB Mitchell Trubisky. Derek Anderson, who will be starting this week in place of rookie Josh Allen, will not be a running threat.
Expect New England to stack the box in order to limit the running game, given the lack of a deep passing threat.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass rush vs Bills pass protection
The pass protection of the Bills' OL, while much better than their run blocking, has still been poor. They seem to be having communication issues and their offensive linemen lack situational awareness. They've been slowly improving, but this is still an OL that fails to consistently protect its young QB. Their weakest pass blockers have been LT Dion Dawkins, RG John Miller, and RT Jordan Mills.
The Patriots have been one of the best teams in the league when it comes to generating pressure on the QB. This has not translated into many sacks, but their pass rush has certainly affected opposing QBs, and is a large part of why the defense has at least one interception in each game this season. The DEs should have success against their tackles, and Adam Butler could have a big game against the interior of their offensive line
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Bills passing game
The Bills come into the Monday Night Football showdown owning the league's worst passing attack. As if it could not get any worse, their starting QB - rookie Josh Allen - has been ruled out with an elbow injury. In his place, career back-up Derek Anderson will get the start.
Buffalo's offensive coordinator this season is former Patriots' offensive assistant and tight ends coach Brian Daboll. With him, he brings the Erhardt-Perkins system that the Patriots have had so much success with. Daboll's intention is to use this concept driven system to be multiple and unpredictable, by using a few core concepts out of different formations to keep the defense guessing. The flexibility of the system allows the coaches to develop a specific gameplan each week for that specific opponent. Their offense has been very limited, however, because of their desire to simplify things for their rookie QB. I don't expect this to change much with Anderson starting.
One of the core concepts they use a lot is the sails concept. This allows the offense to overload one side while stretching the defense vertically. The sails concept works very well against cover 3, which the Patriots play a lot of, however I expect them to be mostly in cover 1 this week.
The Bills also like to run the mesh concept, which has been problematic for the Patriots against certain teams. This is a simple crossing route, which can be difficult to defend in both man and zone coverage, if well executed
Another thing the Bills incorporate a lot of in their offense is the wheel route to a running back.
The Bills' offense does some things schematically that have caused issues for the Patriots' defense over the last year, but the problem is that their lack of overall talent, awareness, and execution has haunted them this season. This is the worst offense in the league. Their receivers have had trouble getting separation, and their quarterbacks have had issues with accuracy and making the proper reads.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Bills run defense
The Bills had one of the top ranked run defenses in the NFL prior to week 7. Their ranking plummeted after the Colts put up 220 rushing yards on 37 carries for 5.9 yards per carry. The Colts were able to beat them so thoroughly with the run game by throwing new blocking schemes at the Bills that their defense was not able to recognize, which compromised their gap integrity.
The Patriots may be able to scheme their way to some decent gains on the ground, but without Sony Michel in the line up after suffering a knee injury, it may be difficult for White and Barner to generate a consistent rushing threat against what is still a solid run defense.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots pass protection vs Bills pass rush
The Buffalo Bills have been able to generate good pressure on the QB this season. They are tied for 8th in total sacks, and they are getting pressure from both the interior and exterior. DT Kyle Williams and DE Jerry Hughes will be the toughest challenge, but they've got other defensive linemen, as well as linebackers, who can put the heat on Brady. The most impressive part is that they've been able to generate pressure by only rushing fours guys, without needing to blitz much.
The Patriots' offensive line has largely been able to effectively protect Brady through 7 games. Even against one of the better defenses in the league last Sunday in Chicago, Brady was rarely under duress. They did an excellent job of neutralizing Khalil Mack.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Bills pass defense
The Bills are primarily a zone defense. They run a lot of cover 3 and cover 2, but they also come out in cover 4, and even sprinkle in some cover 1 once in a while. In their dominant win over the Vikings, they used a lot of cover 2 once they jumped out to a big lead. This week, I expect to see more cover 3, and possibly even more cover 1, as they will want to man up on the Patriots' receivers in certain situations. Sean McDermott like to disguise pressure as well as coverages. He loves to show man coverage when his defense is actually playing zone, and he also disguises his cover 3 by showing a two high safety look. This will be difficult for Buffalo to do against a QB like Tom Brady, whose experience and football IQ allows him to read and process all of this information quickly, and then make the appropriate pre-snap adjustments.
The Patriots' offense has been arguably the best in the league since the addition of Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman's return from suspension. They've been able to attack every level of the field effectively, and they have been a lot more efficient in terms of converting 1st downs. Rob Gronkowski's availability is uncertain, but even without him, they have plenty of weapons in the passing game.
It's no secret that Tom Brady has excelled against zone defense throughout his career. Cover 3 especially is a defense that he has seen a lot of in marquee match ups in recent years, and has put up big numbers. Cover 3 is very susceptible to the short passing game, especially when the sidelines are being stressed, and the Patriots have a very efficient short passing attack.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
