Week 9: Packers vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Packers running game
The Packers head into Foxboro with one of the best offensive lines in the league. Green Bay runs a zone-blocking scheme, and their offensive line have shown great footwork, well designed blocking rules, and tremendous communication between the linemen. They have played exceptionally well in the run game, creating big holes for RB Aaron Jones. Speaking of Aaron Jones, the 2nd year RB has had a great season, averaging an incredible 6.2 yards per carry. Surprisingly, they have seldom used him, or any of their RBs, as part of their attack. They only run the ball about 37% of the time, which is the 2nd lowest in the NFL. Perhaps they will have an opportunity to run the ball more on Sunday, since New England will likely spend most of the game in nickel or dime.
The Patriots had struggled against zone-blocking teams, but they've faced a slew of zone-blocking teams in recent games and have fared fairly well.
On Monday night against Buffalo, the Patriots put in their best performance against the run this season. They held Buffalo to 2.4 yards per carry, and showed great gap discipline and technique throughout. Trey Flowers - one of the best defensive ends in the NFL - had a superb showing for the Patriots. He was disruptive all night and was constantly in Buffalo's backfield.
As mentioned previously, the Patriots will mostly be in nickel or dime on Sunday night, so the Packers may have an opportunity to utilize their star RB more frequently than they have all season. The Patriots will be using a lighter front (6 in nickel and 5 in dime) and so it will be crucial for them to control the gaps and be disruptive up front.
Match-up edge: Packers.
Patriots pass rush vs Packers pass protection
Green Bay's offensive line has played well in pass protection this season, for the most part. Their tackles, David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, have been exceptional, and their center, Corey Linsley, has been very solid. Bakhtiari especially has been impressive, and is arguably the best LT in the game. Their guards, on the other hand, are another story. Lane Taylor and Byron Bell have struggled in pass protection at times this season, and they are largely to blame for Aaron Rodgers being tied for the 5th most sacked QB in the league. Even though they give up a lot of sacks, comparatively, they've done a good job limiting pressure. However, the interior of that offensive line could be exploited.
Despite a low sack total, the Patriots are among the top teams in the league when it comes to generating pressure on the opposing QB. They've had success getting pressure from the DL, but they have also gotten to the QB bringing an extra pass rusher on the blitz. On Monday night it was Kyle Van Noy, who had 4 total pressures.
The Patriots will need to find a way to dial up some pressure on Rodgers in key situations. Rodgers' performance under pressure this season has been mediocre at best. They will need to get to him by winning one on one battles - likely against Green Bay's guards, who have struggled - or with disguised blitzes. If Rodgers is able to recognize the blitz pre-snap, he will be able to pick the defense apart.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots pass defense vs Packers passing game
The Packers have the league's 5th ranked passing game in terms of yards per game. Green bay has amassed a lot of yards between the 20s, but they have struggled on 3rd down and they have not been efficient inside of the red zone. Jimmy Graham has not been the red zone threat that he was in his prime. The Packers' most lethal weapon in the passing game has been the downfield pass, mostly from the switch concept. However, once the field shortens, their passing game becomes very pedestrian.
A couple of things stand out about Aaron Rodgers this season. First, he throws the ball away at a very high rate. According to PFF, he is on pace to shatter the throw away record. Second, according to the same article, Rodgers has the 3rd most dropbacks with a time to throw of more than 3 seconds. This is due to his receivers failing to get open consistently, and also due to the fact that he tends to get locked on to receivers downfield while ignoring the check down. For the Patriots, it will be essential to take away the deep pass and make Rodgers hold on to the ball, and either record a sack or force him to throw the ball away.
Unlike some of the Patriots' previous opponents, Green Bay doesn't pose a great schematic or personnel threat. They do not stretch the field horizontally and they do not have a RB who is a danger in the passing game.
The Patriots' secondary has played exceptionally well, problems with the linebackers in coverage not withstanding. Gilmore has been locking down receivers that he has shadowed, Jason McCourty has been very good as the #2 cornerback, Jonathan Jones has emerged as a superb slot corner, Patrick Chung has played well as a box safety and also in coverage, and Devin McCourty has been an elite FS whenever he has been used on the perimeter.
Against the Packers, I would expect to see the team play a mix of both Cover 1 and Cover 3, as usual. However, I would expect a lot of Cover 1 this week in order to combat Green Bay's use of switch concepts. I would expect to see a lot of nickel and dime, with Adams being doubled by Jason McCourty plus a safety, Allison being shadowed by Gilmore, Jones guarding Cobn inside the slot, and Patrick Chung covering Jimmy Graham. I would also expect to see Graham being doubled on 3rd down and inside of the red zone.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Packers run defense
The Packers rank in the bottom half of the league in both rushing yards allowed per game and yards per carry allowed. Their inside linebackers are too small to hold up against the run, and opposing teams have had a lot of success running up the gut. They've also been prone to missing tackles and showing low effort for long stretches throughout a game.
Unfortunately, it is unclear whether the Patriots will have the tools to exploit Green Bay's porous run defense. Rookie Sony Michel missed last week's game due to an MCL sprain, and while he has practice on a limited basis this week, his availability is still uncertain. Even if he does play, it may take a while for him to get up to speed.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots pass protection vs Packers pass rush
Like the Patriots, the Packers have been one of the top teams in the league when it comes to generating pressure on the QB. The difference is that they blitz significantly more than the Patriots.
As a disciple of Rex Ryan, Green Bay defensive coordinator loves to use a lot of exotic blitzes. he likes to use the offensive line's protection rules against them and exploit those rules in order to bring pressure up the middle. He also loves the overload blitzes, where the defense uses more defenders in the pass rush than there are in pass protection.
The Patriots' offensive line will surely be well prepared throughout the week of practice, but during the game they will need supreme pre-snap communication, and the RBs will need to do their part as well. James White, who will be the primary back on passing downs, has generally been a good pass blocker, and will need a good effort in that area on Sunday.
As a unit this season, the New England OL has played very well in pass protection. They have one of the fewest pressure rates allowed in the NFL.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Packers pass defense
With the arrival of new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, the Packers have played more man coverage than they did under former defensive coordinator, Dom Capers. They still play a good amount of zone coverage, but they are mixing their coverages more now.
Outside of CB Jaire Alexandre, who had a fantastic showing against the Rams last Sunday, no one has really stood out in the Packers' secondary. Earlier this week, they traded their starting safety HaHa Clinton-Dix. Clinton-Dix had been somewhat inconsistent through the first 8 weeks of the season, but he was still one of their better defensive backs. Their defense will take some time to adjust to his departure.
Where the Packers have really struggled, however, is covering elite pass-catching running backs and TEs. Their linebackers can be exploited in the passing game with RBs and TEs, and with wide receivers on shallow crossing routes. James White, Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelman could be a handful for them.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
