Week 1: Steelers vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Steelers running game
The Pittsburgh Steelers have become a more diverse offense when it comes to running the ball since the departure of Le'Veon Bell. While technically still on the roster in 2018, Bell sat out all of 2018 due to a contract dispute with the team. With him in the lineup, they ran a lot of inside zone, but now they are more committed to running whatever works best against the opposition
In last year's matchup, The Steelers used a lot of misdirection from 11 personnel to force the Patriots into light defensive fronts and to take advantage of their lack of speed at linebacker. They had a lot of success, running for 158 yards. The Patriots diverted a lot of their resources on defense to slowing down Brown and Smith-Schuster, which they did successfully. However, the consequence was that the Steelers were able to essentially run the ball at will against New England's nickel and dime formations.
With Antonio Brown now a Patriot, New England can divert fewer resources to stopping the pass, and instead deploy them towards stopping the run. The run defense has looked a lot better this summer than it did for most of 2018. Lawrence Guy, Danny Shelton, and Adam Butler have looked good inside, and the diverse and deep rotation of linebackers have contributed to what has been a strong run defense throughout training camp and preseason.
Match-up edge: Even
Patriots pass rush vs Steelers pass protection
The Patriots had one of the more potent pass rushing units in 2018, and it got stronger throughout the season, looking especially strong in the postseason. They lost Trey Flowers in the off-season, but they added star pass rusher Michael Bennett, 3rd round draft pick Chase Winovich, and have brought in former Patriot Jamie Collins. The pass rushing has continued to look strong this summer. The team has a deep and diverse rotation of pass rushers that can attack from anywhere.
The Steelers had arguably the best offensive line in pass protection in 2018. The Patriots had some success early in the game against that unit, but for most of the game, the Steelers' offensive line won that matchup by remaining disciplined and not allowing the Patriots' stunts and blitzes to get to Big Ben.
The Patriots have the advantage of playing at home this time, but their defensive front will likely be more focused on stopping the run than rushing the passer. In obvious passing situations, they should be able to have success. They have the ability to bring pressure from their ends, their tackles, and their linebackers. They've remained aggressive this summer, utilizing many different blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressure, along with the amoeba defense that they used with great success in 2018.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots pass defense vs Steelers passing game
The Steelers run a pass heavy spread offense / Air Coryell scheme. They like to spread the defense horizontally from the shotgun, and then utilize a lot of vertical passing concepts. They lost Antonio Brown in the off-season, so JuJu Smith-Schuster is their top target now, along with Ryan Switzer, Donte’ Moncrief, James Washington.
The Patriots deployed a lot of man coverage in last year's meeting, and held Brown and JuJu to fewer than 90 receiving yards combined. Gilmore and JC Jackson were tracking the star WRs all game, and they received help from their safeties. With Brown no longer a Steeler, look for the Patriots to double JuJu with JC Jackson and a safety, and put Gilmore 1-on-1 on Moncrief. Jonathan Jones should take the slot against Ryan Switzer, and Jason McCourty will be on Washington.
The Patriots had one of the best secondaries in the league last season, and will once again be one of the best, if not the best, in the league in 2019.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Steelers run defense
New England's running game came on strong in the last two weeks of the 2018 regular season and in the playoffs. They put a lot of emphasis on this aspect of their offense towards the end of the season, and it paid off with a dominant run that culminated in their 6th Super Bowl victory. So far this summer, they've shown the same dedication to the run game, with Michel as their centerpiece, and with Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris as complementary pieces. The offensive line took a big hit with the loss of David Andrews, so Ted Karras will have a lot of pressure to step up and replace him.
The Steelers have a very stout defensive front. The lone bright spot of the Patriots' offense in last year's meeting was their running game, especially in the second half. Their run game was very efficient, and they will need to utilize it much more tonight than they did in the previous meeting.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Steelers pass rush
The Patriots' offensive line had a very sloppy performance against the Steelers last season. Marcus Cannon struggled against TJ Watt, and the OL had numerous drive killing penalties. Brady was pressured in key situations, which led to incompletions or turnovers.
Marcus Cannon will need a much better game against TJ Watt, and Ted Karras will need a solid game to protect Brady up the middle.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Steelers pass defense
After long having struggled against Brady and the Patriots' offense, the Steelers used a lot of man coverage in last year's meeting to hold the Patriots to 10 points. The Patriots had no trouble moving the ball, but they faltered whenever they would enter the red zone. The Steelers played tight man coverage and doubled both Gronk and Edelman in certain situations, forcing Brady to hold on to the ball longer than he normally does.
The Patriots acquired long time Steeler Antonio Brown this week, but he is not eligible to play until week 2. Their WR corps will consist of Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, and Jakobi Meyers. With Gronk gone, the Steelers will likely double Edelman even more than they did in 2018, so the other receivers will have to step up. Josh Gordon was barely targeted in the previous meeting, which may have been because the Patriots were aware that he may be suspended, and they wanted to use the pieces that they knew they'd have going forward. James White, who has been one of the most valuable weapons for the team in recent years, was also barely used. These two players will need big games to improve upon last year's week 15 offensive performance.
Match-up edge: Even.
