Week 14: Chiefs vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Chiefs running game
The Chiefs run a zone blocking scheme and like to stretch defenses horizontally with misdirection and jet motion. They like to use their speed to get to the edge before the defense. The poor play of their offensive line, unfortunately, has limited the amount of plays their running backs have been able to make. They've also had several injuries at the RB position. They come into Sunday's game with one of the least productive running attacks in the league.
New England's run defense has been solid for most of the season. They've had subpar performances against 3 of the top rushing offenses in the NFL (Ravens, Browns, and Bills) but for the most part, the run defense has played well. The Chiefs do not pose much of a threat in this regard.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass rush vs Chiefs pass protection
Kansas City's pass blocking, especially the interior of their offensive line, has been a weak link in their passing game. Patrick Mahomes has been pressured up the middle consistently, and it has hurt their air attack.
The Patriots have one of the better pass rush units this season, and they will undoubtedly be looking to generate inside pressure on Mahomes. In last season's AFCCG, they terrorized Mahomes with inside pressure using a variety of stunts and blitzes. If they can replicate that on Sunday, it will go a long way to limiting the Chiefs' offense.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Chiefs passing game
The Chiefs like to stretch opposing defenses horizontally with misdirection plays and jet motion. Once they get you to honor these plays early in the game, they will attack you vertically with extremely fast WRs like Hill and Watkins. All of those misdirection and jet motion plays are designed to open up the middle of the field, as the defense is forced to go horizontally. They like to attack the linebackers on short crossers using mesh concepts.
The Patriots boast the best secondary in the league, and they match up well with this Chiefs receiving corps. Jonathan Jones and Devin McCourty will likely double Tyreek Hill again, like they did in the AFCCG when they held him to just 40 yards, Gilmore will likely be covering Travis Kelce for a large chunk of the game, JC Jackson can cover Sammy Watkins, and Jason McCourty, if he plays, on Hardman. Then Patrick Chung can focus on covering the RBs out of the backfield.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Chiefs run defense
In last season's AFCCG, the Patriots set the tone in the 1st half by running the ball with success against the Chiefs. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, their run defense has not improved in 2019 - it may have gotten worse.
The Patriots have struggled running the ball this season, but with Isaiah Wynn back in the fold, and with Elandon Roberts improving weekly at the FB position, the running game has seen a significant improvement in the last two games. Expect the Patriots to attack the Chiefs both in the A gaps, as well as on the outside.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Chiefs pass rush
Patriots' center Ted Karras will miss some time due to injury, so James Ferentz will replace him. Ferentz was solid coming in at the end of the game against Houston last week. The rest of the offensive line has been solid in pass blocking as well. However, Ferentz will be tested against DT Chris Jones on Sunday. The Chiefs' pass rush has been better in recent weeks, so this could be a back and forth battle between these two units.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Chiefs pass defense
It's no secret that New England's passing offense has struggled immensely in the last month. A lot of injuries and other circumstances have pushed the young rookie receivers into key starting roles, and they have had trouble picking up the offense and building chemistry with Brady.
The Chiefs secondary, on the other hand, has improved dramatically since last season. They have much better and tighter coverage, and they make a lot of big plays. This unit has been a big reason why their defense has generated as many turnovers as they have in recent weeks.
Having said that, do not expect the Patriots to test this secondary much. They will run the ball a ton, and when they pass, it will be to running backs out of the backfield, which Kansas City has not covered well.
Match-up edge: Chiefs.
