Week 16: Bills vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Bills running game
The Buffalo Bills come into this week 16 game with one of the top rushing attacks in the league statistically. They are getting good production from their offensive line and running backs. Devin Singletary leads the way with 729 yards, and he is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Frank Gore has been productive, too, and had a strong performance the last time these two teams played one another in week 4.
The Patriots boast a top 10 ranked run defense. They will have their hands full against this running attack, as it posed issues in the first meeting.
Match-up edge: Bills
Patriots pass rush vs Bills pass protection
As stated previously, the right side of Buffalo's OL is questionable. Allen has been forced to run to escape a collapsed pocket on several occasions this year, so they are definitely vulnerable, or at least inconsistent, in pass protection.
New England's pass rush has been terrorizing opposing QBs since last season, and continues to be a force in 2019. The Patriots had a lot of success with blitzes and disguised pressure against Allen the last two times they played him. They were able to confuse him and force him into multiple errors. The Bengals had success with blitzes last week, so look for the Patriots bring a lot of heat in order to rattle the young QB.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Bills passing game
Buffalo's passing attack, and Josh Allen in particular, looks better than last year. However, he is still young and inexperienced, and still makes some crucial errors.
The majority of Buffalo's receiving production has come from John Brown and former Cowboy Cole Beasley. Cole Beasley is a very quick and shifty player who can make quick cuts and is superb in small spaces.
The Patriots continue to have the best secondary in the league. This unit has shut down some of the best WRs in the league since last season, and they just continue to get better each week. This is primarily a man coverage team, but they will sprinkle in some zone depending on the situation. Only the Lions have run more Cover 1 than the Patriots this season. Getting aggressive with Buffalo's receivers and playing tight man to man coverage will take away some of the short throws Allen has leaned on this season, and should force him to hold on to the ball longer. Also look for New England to have a spy on Allen in order to stop him from burning them with his feet.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Bills run defense
Buffalo's 4-3 defense boasts a lot of talent, but their run defense has been a weakness in 2019. It's not an entirely porous unit, but they have given up a considerable amount of yards on the ground, especially in the second half of the season.
New England's running game hasn't been very good this season, but it has started to come alive since Wynn's return. It took a step back in week 14 with Karras' absence, but looked dominant once again last week with his return. This is one matchup the Patriots should be able to exploit.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Bills pass rush
Buffalo's pass rush has been very productive this season, not only in terms of recording sacks, but generating pressure. They force QBs to get the ball out quickly, and it often pressures them into errors. This does not bode well for New England's pass blocking, which continues to give up untimely pressure that ends up killing drives.
Match-up edge: Bills.
Patriots passing game vs Bills pass defense
The Buffalo Bills are primarily a zone defense. They run a lot of Cover 2, and some Cover 4. Tom Brady usually performs very well against this type of defense, but Sean McDermott has had some success coaching against him in the past. Brady has more interceptions than he does touchdowns against McDermott's defenses. Buffalo's pass defense had another stellar performance against Brady in this season's week 4 meeting.
CB Tre'Davious White is the standout. He's been superb since 2018, and the Patriots will most likely stay away from him most of the game. Instead, they will attack Buffalo's linebackers in the middle of the field with play action passes like they did last year. Their LBs are fairly weak in coverage, and this is where they might be exploited.
Match-up edge: Bills.
