Week 4: Patriots vs Bills
Patriots run defense vs Bills running game
The Buffalo Bills come into this week 4 game with one of the top rushing attacks in the league statistically. They have amassed 454 yards per game on the ground, but 105 of those have come from QB Josh Allen. Never the less, they are still getting good production from their offensive line and running backs. Frank Gore leads the way with 164 yards, but he is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Their most explosive back this season has been Devin Singletary, however, he is questionable for Sunday's game. If there is one hole in their running game, it's the rights side of their offensive line.
The Patriots boast the top ranked run defense. They have gotten contributions from everyone along their defensive line, as well as their linebackers. This is a very dominant unit that uses a 3-4 scheme and a style that makes superb use of their personnel. The defensive line, including Danny Shelton who struggled most of last year, has been superb, with a vertical attacking and penetrating style that has stymied every opponent this season. They will have their hands full against the best running attack they will have faced in 2019, but they are well equipped to deal with the challenge.
Match-up edge: Patriots
Patriots pass rush vs Bills pass protection
As stated previously, the right side of Buffalo's OL is questionable. Allen has been forced to run to escape a collapsed pocket on several occasions this year, so they are definitely vulnerable, or at least inconsistent, in pass protection.
New England's pass rush has been terrorizing opposing QBs since last season, and continues to be a force in 2019. The Patriots had a lot of success with blitzes and disguised pressure against Allen last year. They were able to confuse him and force him into multiple errors. The Bengals had success with blitzes last week, so look for the Patriots bring a lot of heat in order to rattle the young QB.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Bills passing game
Buffalo's passing attack, and Josh Allen in particular, looks better than last year. However, he is still young and inexperienced, and still makes some crucial errors.
The majority of Buffalo's receiving production has come from John Brown and former Cowboy Cole Beasley. Cole Beasley is a very quick and shifty player who can make quick cuts and is superb in small spaces. The Patriots don't often play against receivers with this skill set, but they do practice against one every day, who is better and more accomplished - Julian Edelman. Nevertheless, games are an entirely different beast, so they will need to bring their A game. I would expect to see Jonathan Jones on Beasley. Jones has been spectacular in the slot this season, and this gives the Patriots a great chance to neutralize him.
The Patriots continue to have the best secondary in the league. This unit has shut down some of the best WRs in the league since last season, and they just continue to get better each week. This is primarily a man coverage team, but they will sprinkle in some zone depending on the situation. Only the Lions have run more Cover 1 than the Patriots this season. Getting aggressive with Buffalo's receivers and playing tight man to man coverage will take away some of the short throws Allen has leaned on this season, and should force him to hold on to the ball longer. Also look for New England to have a spy on Allen in order to stop him from burning them with his feet.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Bills run defense
Buffalo's 4-3 defense boasts a lot of talent, and they have one of the league's top run defenses. Star Lotulelei is an elite space eater, and Oliver provides explosive athleticism in the middle. Add Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander, and you've got a stout front 7.
New England's running game hasn't been very good this season. They've had flashes of excellence, but the running attack has been held back by injuries to the offensive line. They will have their hands full against this dominant Bills front.
Match-up edge: Bills.
Patriots pass protection vs Bills pass rush
Buffalo's pass rush has been very productive this season, not only in terms of recording sacks, but generating pressure. They force QBs to get the ball out in 2.6 seconds, on average, which is 6th best in the league. Ed Oliver has been their best pass rusher, but they've got talent across the front 7 who can get to the QB. With this being a home game, they should get their fair share of pressure on Tom Brady. However, New England's offensive line, despite struggling in run blocking, has been solid in pass protection. This should be a back and forth battle between these two units.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots passing game vs Bills pass defense
The Buffalo Bills are primarily a zone defense. They run a lot of Cover 2, and some Cover 4. Tom Brady usually performs very well against this type of defense, but Sean McDermott has had some success coaching against him in the past. Brady has more interceptions than he does touchdowns against McDermott's defenses.
The Bills have a very talented secondary. They have stifled a lot of passing attacks the last two seasons. CB Tre'Davious White is the standout. He's been superb since 2018, and the Patriots will most likely stay away from him most of the game. Instead, they will attack Buffalo's linebackers in the middle of the field with play action passes like they did last year. Their LBs are fairly weak in coverage, and this is where they can be exploited.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
