Week 9: Patriots vs Ravens
Patriots run defense vs Ravens running game
The Ravens have the number 1 run game in the NFL, averaging over 200 yards rushing per game. They have a couple of talented running backs, but their best and most productive rusher is QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson leads the team with 576 rushing yards, followed by Mark Ingram with 470 yards, and Gus Edwards with 234 yards.
Baltimore has a very effective inside power run game that involves pulling offensive linemen. They play a very physical brand of football, and they have had a lot of success on the ground. On top of that, their run game is very diverse, and they disguise a lot of what they do pre-snap.
The Patriots have a top 5 run defense this season, but this will be their biggest challenge. Their week 8 opponent - the Cleveland Browns - had a strong running attack as well, and in fact, they lead the league in rushing yards per carry, but the Ravens present a slightly bigger challenge due to their diversity. The Browns rushed for 159 yards, but a lot of that had to do with weather conditions. The Patriots, who are usually great tacklers, struggled to bring Nick Chubb down in the first half of the game, because the rainy conditions made him even more slippery than he typically is.
The approach for the Patriots will likely be to choke the middle of the field on run plays and force runners to the outside, while playing zone coverage to seal off the outside runs. Lamar Jackson's yards per rush is much lower against zone than it is against man, and he also throws more interceptions against zone coverage. They may also use 6-7 defensive backs frequently, like the Chargers did against the Ravens last season, to keep up with Jackson and their speedy running backs.
Match-up edge: Patriots
Patriots pass rush vs Ravens pass protection
Baltimore's pass protection has been up and down this season. They've had some solid performances, but they've also had some poor showings, such as their games against the Browns and Steelers, where they've allowed a lot of pressure. It's not all on the offensive line, however, as Lamar Jackson has either failed to set the correct protections pre-snap, or has held on to the ball for too long.
The Patriots are the best team in the league at generating pressure on the QB without blitzing. However, they are very effective when blitzing as well. The Browns and Steelers were not afraid to blitz Jackson, and it paid dividends. New England has come up with some creative stunts to create 4 man pressure, but they've had some nicely designed and disguised blitz schemes, too. Given Lamar Jackson's inability to set correct protections, look for New England's defense to try to confuse the young quarterback with some creative pressure packages.
Match-up edge: Even.
Patriots pass defense vs Ravens passing game
The Ravens have a very diverse offense, but largely it can be categorized as a run heavy option offense. They feature, drop back passes, downhill running, RPOs, triple options, play action, zone runs, etc. The offense is built around young QB Lamar Jackson and his ability to scramble. They like to run the ball a lot, and to throw deep vertical passes to WRs and TEs. 'Hollywood' Brown, is expected to play this week for the Ravens, and his speed and ability to attack defenses deep, is something the Patriots will have to be cognizant of. Their TE Mark Andrews is also a dangerous weapon in the passing game.
The Patriots have primarily been a man coverage defense, but expect a zone heavy approach on Sunday night. As mentioned previously, Lamar Jackson has performed worse (both as a rusher and a passer) against zone coverage than man coverage. The Patriots are also likely to use a lot of defensive backs on almost every play - anywhere from 6 to 7. This gameplan worked very well for the Chargers last season when they played Baltimore, because not only did it stifle the passing attack, but it was effective against the run by containing Jackson. Defensive backs are faster than linebackers, so using an extra DB to contain Jackson makes more sense than a linebacker.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Ravens run defense
The Ravens run defense has been very stout in 2019. Matthew Judon has been the best player on that front, and his supporting cast of L.J. Fort, Josh Bynes, Tyus Bowser and Patrick Onwuasor have performed well, too. They are very adept at getting off their blocks and limiting opposing running attacks.
The Patriots offensive line has continued to struggle when it comes to run blocking. Injuries to Wynn and Mason have hurt them tremendously. Shaq Mason is listed as questionable, so there's a good chance he will play. Wynn is not yet eligible to return from IR.
Match-up edge: Ravens.
Patriots pass protection vs Ravens pass rush
The Ravens, despite losing Pernell McPhee to injury, have had a strong pass rush through the first half of the season. They are 10th in the NFL at getting pressure without blitzing. Their primary goal on Sunday will be to get Tom Brady off the spot by creating pressure up the middle.
As mentioned earlier, New England's offensive line has battle through numerous injuries in 2019. The pass blocking has generally been better than the run blocking, but not by much. Opposing defenses have had some success getting to Brady, and creating turnovers as a result.
Match-up edge: Ravens.
Patriots passing game vs Ravens pass defense
The Ravens have a lot of talent in their secondary on paper, but their pass defense has been average this year. They have underperformed given their level of talent. Earl Thomas is not quite the same player he once was, and Marcus Peters is a corner who can give up big plays due to his aggressiveness. Marlon Humphrey is very talented, but has been inconsistent. Expect the Ravens to try to press New England's receiver at the line and play tight man coverage.
New England has started to run more of a quick and short/intermediate pass offense in recent weeks in order to deal with their beat up offensive line. The addition of Mohamed Sanu is a big indicator that they want to continue to develop this aspect of their passing game. Look for a lot of rub routes and short passes over the middle to Edelman, Sanu, White, in order to get the ball quickly out of Brady's hands to avoid the pass rush.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
