Wildcard Round: Titans vs Patriots
Patriots run defense vs Titans running game
While Matt Lafleur is no longer with the team, the Titans still run a very similar offense to the one they did last year when he was their offensive coordinator. Another similar offense, is one the Patriots are familiar with from the last postseason game they played - the LA Rams. Much like the Rams, the Titans' offense is predicated on the run game. They rely heavily on their outside zone running scheme, in which they use a lot of misdirection to create a horizontal displacement of the defense.
The Tennessee running game has been on a tear in the second half of the season. Derrick Henry is the leading rusher in the NFL, and their offensive line is big, sound, and very physical.
In Super Bowl 53 against the Rams, the Patriots deviated from their tendencies. Instead of a two gap defensive front, they were very aggressive with a one gap scheme where the defensive line attacked the Rams vertically. They went from a 3-4 to a 4-3 with 6 defenders on the line of scrimmage. This forced the Rams to run up the gut, right at the heart of the defense - Shelton, Guy, and Hightower. The Patriots were able to shut down an elite Rams running attack to win their 6th Super Bowl, and they are likely to take a similar approach on Saturday night.
One thing that could throw a wrench into this is the weather. Rain is expected on Saturday evening. The last time the Patriots played in the rain against an elite running attack was against the Browns, and they had issues tackling.
Match-up edge: Titans
Patriots pass rush vs Titans pass protection
As good as the Tennessee OL has been in run blocking, their pass protection has been subpar. Tannehill has been sacked 30 times on only 300 dropbacks. This does not bode well for Tennessee, against a Patriots defense that has one of the highest pressure rates in the league.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass defense vs Titans passing game
As previously mentioned, the Titans offense resembles that of the LA Rams. They like to use the run the set up the deep play-action passing game, and they also like to attack defenses with crossing routes. In Super Bowl 53, the Patriots countered this offensive scheme by playing Cover 1 with a robber to take away the crossing routes, and a lot of Cover 4, to eliminated the deep play-action passing game.
The Titans Have a very talented crop of receivers. AJ Brown, Cory Davis, Jonnu Smith, Delanie Walker, Adam Humphries, and Dion Lewis are all talented and dangerous weapons. Since Ryan Tannehill took over the starting role, they have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The Patriots are equipped with a deep and talented secondary, and if they execute the gameplan, they should be able to contain this passing attack.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots running game vs Titans run defense
The Titans front 7 has been very stout against opposing ground attacks in 2019. Jones, Casey, Daquan, Evans, and Woodyard have been the heart of that defense, and have made it difficult for opponents to run on them.
The Patriots run game finished the season with below average numbers, but that was mostly due to injuries to Wynn. His return gave a big boost to the run game, but so did the emergence of Elandon Roberts at fullback. Roberts has played very well at the position and has helped to create running lanes for Michel, Burkhead, and White.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots pass protection vs Titans pass rush
Tennessee's pass rush has been adequate, but not stellar, this season. However, last season against New England, they gave Brady and the Patriots' offense a lot of trouble with a gameplan that centered around using all of their best pass rushers to attack Brady up the middle. Head coach Mike Vrabel, who won 3 Super Bowls with the Patriots, knows Brady's weaknesses, and knows how to attack him. Luckily, New England's offensive line has played much better in pass protection recently, and they have an idea of how the Titans' defensive front will approach this game.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
Patriots passing game vs Titans pass defense
Tennessee's pass defense has been the weakness of their defense. They've had some injuries in the secondary, including former Patriot Malcolm Butler, who is out for the year. With Vrabel having such in-depth knowledge of this Patriots offense, expect him to deploy a lot of tight man coverage against New England's receivers.
The much maligned Patriots pass offense has been up and down in 2019 - in fact, in the second half of the season, it has been mostly down. Two weeks ago against the excellent Buffalo Bills secondary, it looked like it may have turned the corner, but the following week it reverted to what it was for most of the second half of 2019. The level of talent will not all of a sudden increase dramatically, so it will be up to Josh McDaniels to be creative with play design and play calling. They are going up against a below average pass defense, so on paper, they should have the advantage. It will be up to the receivers to run precise routes and get separation.
Match-up edge: Patriots.
